SpaceX Transformation

The SpaceX genie is out of the bottle

Starbase spaceport Tx, credit SpaceX

SpaceX is approaching a growth surge that will transform how the company is perceived and operates. Currently SpaceX growth is exponential, with no sign of stopping, which implies the company will turn into a true space colossus.

“With a LOT of work and good ideas, I think it [Tesla] could exceed the value of all transport companies, excluding SpaceX” ~ Elon Musk/X

Here are the major milestones we can expect them to achieve in the coming years on their path to greatness.

The Outernet

“In the long-term it [Starlink] will be like rebuilding the internet in space. The goal will be to have a majority of long distance internet traffic going over this network – and about 10% of local and consumer and business traffic.” ~ Elon Musk

SpaceX plan to turn the internet into an outernet, by routing the majority of data traffic through their Starlink satellites. This should be particularly attractive to global users because a network of interconnected satellites is inherently more secure and faster than conventional fiber internet between continents. So far SpaceX has achieved good connectivity with their Starlink constellation, and will shortly deploy v3 satellites to 10X data transfer rates. In addition they are introducing a direct to cell service to provide phone connectivity anywhere on Earth. This combined internet/phone service should generate ~$1tn revenue with software margins, more than enough to support their aggresive expansion program.

Commercial Artemis

Reportedly the Space Launch System (SLS) will only be used for the next two moon missions (Artemis 2 and 3) before NASA transitions to a commercial alternative. Essentially they need a commercial launch system to ensure lunar development is sustainable over the longterm. Fortunately NASA selected Starship to shuttle astronauts between lunar orbit and the surface, because of its low cost and sustainability, due to reusability. This implies Starship has the inside track to replace SLS, because it can perform the dual role of launch vehicle and lander at comparatively low cost. Once lunar settlement is in full swing, SpaceX could launch cargo flights almost daily.

Golden Dome

The Pentagon has completed a Request for Information (RFI) for the Golden Dome missile defense system and no doubt issue a Request for Proposal (RFP) later this year. This orbital missile defense system should consist of 1,000 sensing satellites that feed targeting information to 200 attack satellites, equipped with interceptor missiles or lasers. Currently SpaceX appear a shoo-in to receive a contract for sensing satellites, because they have already built the Starshield constellation, consisting of 200+ sensing satellites for the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). In addition the following factors will make them difficult to ignore for Golden Dome work: -

• Sensing satellites supplied by SpaceX can connect to Starlink, so the constellation can begin to work before it is complete, or continue to work if some satellites are lost in a conflict.

• SpaceX already mass produce satellites for Starlink and Starshield, so they can bid significantly lower than competitors who will likely have production setup costs.

• Starship will substantially lower launch costs, hence SpaceX’s combined bid for manufacture and launch should undercut any competitors bid just to produce these satellites.

Overall Golden Dome could become a huge revenue source for SpaceX if they are responsible for building, launching, operating and maintaining such a strategically important mega-constellation.

Mars Program

Nominee NASA Administrator, Jared Isaacman, wants to create a human Mars program to run in parallel with Artemis, and the White House has requested $1bn for this program in the next NASA budget. Any human expedition to Mars should last for at least 2 years so require significant supplies and resources. Starship can carry 200 tons and specifically designed for human missions to Mars. Considering Starship is the only way to achieve Mars landings during the current administration, SpaceX is in pole position to become the primary contractor for this emerging Mars program.

Commercial Space Station

NASA aims to retire the International Space Station (ISS) by 2030 and should start the decommissioning process in 2029. Unfortunately none of the commercial stations will be available for at least a decade given current levels of funding, which suggests there will be a capability gap. Fortunately SpaceX can install equipment racks onto a crew Starship and use it as a reusable space station to continue research for the moon and Mars programs. Testing science onboard Starship, the vehicle intended for the moon and Mars, is extremely practical and shouldn’t require additional cargo and crew flights, making it less expensive to operate than a commercial space station. Starship can even be sent to deep space, after being refueled in orbit, allowing it to perform the science intended for NASA’s Gateway station, a case of two-for-one.

Rocket Cargo

The United States Space Force (USSF) is cooperating with the Air Force Research Laboratory to create a ballistic transport capability using reusable rockets. This could be an effective way to quickly react to threats or provide urgently needed materiel to logistic hubs, or front line forces (using disposable reentry pallets). SpaceX plan to reuse Starship, which can land almost anywhere, making it indispensable to this program. As the US prepares to counter emerging threats in Europe and Asia, demand for rocket cargo will likely increase, proving Starship’s worth to the military.

USSF Fleet

“But as nations move out, and as the economy grows between here and the lunar surface, and as you look at key terrain for the defense of our nation, I think it [cislunar] is an area that will be significant as we move forward… I do see that there may be a role for [Space Force] Guardians that will be in space. So I think that will happen in the...career timeframe of the Guardians that are coming into service right now.” ~ Chief of Space Operations Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond

Once the USSF has familiarized themself with Starship and proven its capabilities, they will likely establish a fleet of crewed vehicles to ensure space security. These military Starships will operate in cislunar space and probably carry an array of drones for offensive, defensive and reconnaissance missions. The USSF budget should grow considerably in the coming years, so expect their fleet of Starships to continuously expand, similar to the US Navy’s carrier fleet. In such a scenario SpaceX would likely be responsible for resupply and refueling, in addition to constructing and outfitting this growing fleet of carriers, overall big business for SpaceX.

World Building

“The conventional space paradigms do not apply to what we’re doing here. We’re trying to build a massive fleet to make Mars habitable, to make life multi-planetary. I think we need, probably, on the order of 1,000 ships, and each of those ships would have more payload than the Saturn V – and be reusable.” ~ Elon Musk/Ars Technica

What really takes SpaceX to the next level is their corporate mission to settle new worlds, starting with Mars. The initial settlement should consist of a Mars version of Starbase, a propellant production plant and solar farm, supported by an underground network of workshops, businesses and habitations (to protect from variable surface conditions). This low cost model for space settlement will probably be duplicated on large moons and asteroids around the solar system, further improving SpaceX’s reach and influence.

In Conclusion

SpaceX is destined to become a space titan in the coming decade, unrivaled by any other company. Effectively they will be the facilitators for space, due to their low cost, unrivaled reliability and technical acumen.

Commercial enterprise is far more productive than government agencies and SpaceX revenue should exceed NASA’s budget by 2026… Space exploration has been in the doldrums for 50 years, what’s needed is SpaceX’s drive and ambition to move us forward.

Chris Prophet