Starshield – SpaceX’s Dark Horse

Starlink is great, Starshield could be better

In December 2022 SpaceX revealed they were developing a constellation of defense satellites called Starshield for an unknown client. This work is highly confidential and cutting edge, which fits the modus operandi for the National Reconnaissanse Office (NRO) to a T. Reportedly they have invested $2bn so far in Starshield development, assisted by The Aerospace Corporation who contributed some satellite hardware and encryption software. The Starshield bus is a pantechnicon, capable of carrying a variety of Earth observation and sensing payloads designed for Low Earth Orbit (LEO), supported by high bandwidth laser communications and advanced encryption software.

Notable the US Space Force (USSF) is already building a proliferated constellation in LEO, capable of real time Earth observation and target tracking via laser interlinks, which appears to duplicate the utility of Starshield. More interesting still, USSF has contracted to use Starshield, which suggests it provides some additional service beyond what they already receive from their own constellation of satellites.

“The SpaceX contract provides for Starshield end-to-end service (via the Starlink constellation), user terminals, ancillary equipment, network management and other related services,” ~ Space Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek/CNBC

While the USSF acts openly, the originator for Starshield prefers a veil of secrecy, which suggests its intended role is even more sensitive than Earth observation. They say: “form fits function,” so let’s review what we know about Starshield to provide some perspective on its purpose.

Starshield modular payload bus ~ credit Justin Fauntleroy

Starshield Anatomy

Starshield appears to use a machine learning algorithm (developed by the Aerospace Corporation) to monitor all software processes for intrusion and encrypt data. Each satellite comes equipped with two large solar arrays to provide a surplus of power and mechanical redundancy. The communication lasers used can link with any Starshield or Starlink satellite within line-of-sight, effectively creating a robust data transmission network, instead of relying on conventional ground stations and fiber connections. Similar to Starlink, the Starshield bus uses a flat pack design to maximize the number of satellites that can be stacked inside each launch vehicle. It is rumored the Starshield constellation will be comprised of 400 satellites, although more could be produced relatively quickly via SpaceX’s mass production line.

 “We have the capacity to build up to 45 satellites per week, and we have launched up to 240 satellites in a single month.” ~ SpaceX Update

Overall this suggests the Starshield constellation should be exceptionally robust and secure, even for the military, with the capability to quickly replace any losses, or reconstitute the whole constellation if necessary, once their ultra heavy lift Starship comes online.

Starshield Applications

Due to its low operating altitude and relatively large number of satellites, Starshield should be a godsend for the military, allowing real time, high definition, continuous observation of anywhere on Earth. However, Earth observation is becoming increasingly commonplace and could be provided by either the USSF or commercial entities, from low infrared through to visible frequencies. This, accompanied by the secrecy involved in the project, suggests they have some other applications in mind for Starshield. Given each satellite is designed to host modular payloads it seems almost inevitable some facility for electronic surveillance will be added given the constellation’s reach.

Currently electronic surveillance is performed by military aircraft like the R-135 Rivet Joint, although it’s relatively common for these aircraft to be intercepted, even attacked in sensitive regions like the Black Sea. The phone and computer signals they collect are only a snapshot of the onshore radio activity but any insight into a potential adversary could be invaluable. Direct overflights are more effective for information gathering but guaranteed to provoke a strong response from non-permissive countries, so generally avoided. However, a large constellation at LEO could overfly any territory and provide signal intercepts, real time observation and geolocation, with virtually continuous coverage – generating a veritable cornucopia of intelligence information. Of course any such constellation could expect to be met by all kinds of interference from the surveilled countries, ranging from jamming through to hacking and/or kinetic attacks in order to disrupt its operation. All of which might explain Starshield’s extraordinary resilience given the rogues gallery of nations who would probably feel threatened by its existence.

Starshield Value

On the face of it Starlink might appear a superior resource for SpaceX because it allows them to access a $trillion market as a data provider. However, as Elon Musk proved there are numerous ways to make money for smart and skilled people, and there are plenty such at SpaceX. What Starshield offers is an incomparable technical opportunity to advance the company’s goals by a number of diverse means.

Here’s a few examples of some of the unparalleled possibilities offered by Starshield: -

AI Upgrade – SpaceX would effectively curate the vast amount of data collected by Starshield which would then need to be processed by AI to identify valuable information for the US military and intelligence community.

“By leveraging a cloud architecture, big data analytics, edge computing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, this network should sense a threat from one node and engage it precisely and expeditiously from another across vast distances and across all domains.” ~ Terrence J O'Shaughnessy, VP of Special Programs Group at SpaceX and retired USAF 4 Star General

Quite possibly this AI would be operated by SpaceX, given their access to Tesla’s DOJO technology, which has enormous compute power and specifically designed to process real world data. Essentially the US government would pay SpaceX to create a shockingly powerful computer, capable of solving complex engineering problems almost as a hobby.

Exotic Technology – At present there’s considerable buzz around Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP), even NASA are attempting to investigate this controversial subject for a number of valid reasons (e.g. to increase budget, prestige, leverage etc). SpaceX could be viewed as indispensable to any meaningful investigation due to their technical resources and access to data. Their powerful AI could sift through Starshield observations to isolate and categorize all instances of UAPs from around the globe. In the worse case, if UAPs are determined to have some natural cause, like ball lightning, SpaceX could expect considerable latitude and funding from the federal government during its decades long investigation. In the best case if UAPs are found to be alien in origin...SpaceX would have access to invaluable visual and electromagnetic data, which could lead to far more advanced forms of technology, like field propulsion.

Human Survival – How to handle unstable nuclear armed countries is an emerging problem which requires a modern solution. Complete radio surveillance over these countries could be a potent resource, even in the case of relatively low-tech nations like North Korea. To illustrate one possible scenario: the Russian Federation is an old empire – and that’s a bad combination. If Russia began to balkanize, the commanders of its nuclear arms depots and deployed forces could receive a call offering them a $million bounty for every warhead surrendered to western authorities. Effectively the country could be denuclearized almost overnight, permanently reducing the nuclear threat by one potential adversary. At present many authoritarian nations feel compelled to develop nuclear weapons, raising the overall risk of a nuclear disaster. However, if any nation can be denuclearized, it would demonstrate that nukes are a bane not a blessing, a potential weakness which could be exploited to accelerate the regime’s demise. Overall this should reduce the number of nuclear weapons in circulation, resulting in less risk of human extinction, which benefits everyone.

Succinctly: humanity 1, apocalypse 0.

In Conclusion

The Starshield constellation promises to deliver next level intelligence, i.e. continuous high definition observation, geolocation, signal intercept and traffic analysis. Hopefully this will be the antidote to the increased threat posed by many despotic regimes as they rush to arm with nuclear weapons and leverage these capabilities to settle old scores with their neighbors and strategic adversaries. While some might bemoan the possibility for misuse of Starshield, having a moral company like SpaceX involved in its implementation is preferable to relying on legacy defense contractors who possess a more pliant approach to government. In the final analysis only SpaceX could field such technology in a meaningful timeframe, and they are best suited to handle any derived opportunities given their moral compass and technical agility.

Chris Prophet