SpaceX Shadow Mars Program
If you like moon landings you’ll love Mars
In 2002 SpaceX were set-up with the goal of colonizing Mars and have successfully engineered a range of increasingly powerful rockets, culminating in Starship, the first Mars capable vehicle. Given their corporate mission is to send a million people to Mars it’s surprising their focus appears to have shifted to the moon, as they plan to adapt Starship into a Human Landing System (HLS) for NASA’s Artemis Program. However, appearances can be deceptive and sometimes the best way to hide something is in plain sight…
Much of the Starship development work for HLS has dual utility as it could equally be applied to Moon or Mars missions. For example, SpaceX will produce a propellant depot to refuel HLS in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) before sending it to the moon, although this propellant depot could also be used to refuel Mars-bound vehicles. In addition they are performing a great deal of work which seems to have little application for the moon yet highly applicable for Mars, that if taken in total would constitute a private Mars program.
Mars Development Priorities
SpaceX prioritize work for any development project by focusing on the next piece of technology they need, allowing them to advance step by step towards their goal. An immediate priority for Mars is orbital refueling, which will require a propellant depot, and a tanker variant of Starship to replenish this depot in orbit. The next flight of Starship will test propellant transfer between the vehicle’s header and main tank in microgravity, something they need to master before attempting to transfer propellant between docked vehicles (e.g. tanker to depot to outward bound Starship). Realistically SpaceX could perform one moon mission every 2 years for NASA, hence only require a single propellant depot and reusable tanker to satisfy the Artemis program. However, they are currently constructing a Starfactory, capable of producing one Starship per day at their Starbase launch facility in Texas. This production level is warranted to fulfill their Mars goals, which could require millions of tons of payload to be sent to Mars during each transfer window.
“What we want to do is produce a rocket a day...because if you are going to take people to Mars you are going to go in a flotilla… You really want to launch hundreds [of Starships] on that synodic period when you are taking people there.” ~ Gwynne Shotwell
No doubt they intend to slowly accumulate these colony Starships in LEO during the 26 month interval between Mars departure windows. This suggests any maintenance needed on these vehicles, such as thermal protection tile replacement or engine bay work, would involve some form of Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA), i.e. a human spacewalk. Currently SpaceX are in the final stages of development for their own EVA suit, which should see its first test this summer during the first flight of the Polaris Program. The Polaris Dawn mission should also test laser communications with their Starlink constellation, another vital piece of technology for connecting with large numbers of Starships in orbit. They should also fly close to the Van Allen belt to test the vehicle’s radiation protection and effects of deep space travel, vital information for any Mars mission. Perhaps the most pressing evidence SpaceX are preparing for Mars is the number of launch pads they are building. Realistically they only need one launch pad for Artemis but currently plan to operate 4 that we know of. Intriguingly they intend to produce thousands of tons of liquid oxygen on offshore platforms, which will probably be used to supply two floating spaceports, providing even more launch capacity.
Mars Program Schedule
Considering the urgency of all this development work, SpaceX seems to be pursuing Mars landings with some immediacy. This suggests any dual use capabilities they develop for Artemis will be applied promptly to their Mars effort, because the two programs are effectively running in parallel. Realistically SpaceX doesn’t expect to perform moon landings until 2026 at the earliest due to the major milestones remaining, e.g. deploying an orbital depot capable of longterm propellant storage and performing an autonomous HLS landing on the moon to prove system safety. However, the SpaceX CEO is notoriously impatient, so an autonomous Mars mission will probably be attempted relatively soon after the first autonomous moon landing and if successful a manned Mars mission should follow the first astronaut landing on the moon, perhaps as early as 2028/29.
“Getting to Mars? I think we’ll put people down within the decade.” ~ Gwynne Shotwell
Broad Front
Of course many more technologies will be required to colonize Mars that aren’t in SpaceX’s wheelhouse. Fortunately Elon Musk has established or acquired a variety of companies to develop all the more advanced technologies. Tesla will supply pressurized Cybertrucks for surface transport, Optimus robots to assist the colony building process, solar panels and energy storage. The Boring Company should provide tunnel boring machines to excavate radiation proof habitats and extract vitally needed water from the excavated materials.
“I do think getting good at digging tunnels could be really helpful for Mars. It would be a different optimization for a Mars boring machine versus an Earth boring machine. For sure there's gonna need to be a lot of ice mining on Mars, and mining in general to get raw material. And then, along the way, building underground habitats where you could get radiation shielding… you could build an entire city underground if you wanted to. People are still going to want to go to the surface from time to time, but you can build a tremendous amount underground with the right boring technology on Mars. So I do think there is some overlap in that technology development arena.” ~ Elon Musk/ISS R&D Conference 2017
On the software side, xAI will train all the specialist AIs needed, e.g. to pilot Starship, coordinate the settlement, resource extraction and manufacturing. Last but not least, Neuralink will allow colonists to interface directly with these AIs, allowing an immediate response, literally at the speed of thought. Hopefully that should cover all the major bases and they can source any additional technologies required from external companies.
Why the Secrecy
SpaceX hardly made a secret of wanting to pursue Mars, they simply promote their work for the Artemis Program and let people draw their own conclusions about anything carried out for their Mars program. They have adopted this more diplomatic approach because any talk of Mars would likely distract from NASA’s headline moon effort. The contract value for HLS development should reach $4bn once SpaceX completes all the project milestones, which is good reason to play down everything else they are doing in the background. Once NASA returns to the moon they’ll be no reason for SpaceX to rein in their ambition, particularly as much of the Mars mission hardware would be available thanks to Artemis. Overall NASA should be fairly sanguine about these Mars landings coming only a year or two after their astronauts return to the moon. Their longterm goal is to create a commercial space economy, so SpaceX could be regarded as the first company to step-up to the plate. Ideally NASA want to become one customer among many for space services, and will no doubt jump at the chance of booking flights to Mars on Starship.
In Conclusion
Rather tactfully SpaceX decided to de-emphasize their Mars preparations in favor of their work for NASA’s Artemis Program. On closer inspection SpaceX’s intent seems clear, they will attempt Mars landings as soon as practicable, likely before the end of the decade. This would be a major step towards NASA’s strategic goal of creating a viable space economy through coaching space startups and aerospace companies. No doubt NASA will partner with SpaceX to send exploration teams to Mars as both should benefit from this arrangement. Mars is a huge planet with plenty of space for everyone, NASA, ESA, ISRO, JAXA, ROSCOSMOS even CNSA if they play nicely, care of SpaceX.
"If you like moon landings" -- fine, but not a fan of HLS Starship. I could be a fan of a 100% Starship based moon system that provides 4 missions a year at $250-500M per mission sustaining a lunar base of 10 people. But with kiss-NASA's-ass HLS contract, that possibility is probably gone until later in the 2030s.
Per Mars, other Elon ventures are talked up, but I think they may coincidental to Mars. If Elon was seeding a company called "Mars Surface Support" now, with a few $B of Elon fun money to attract a graduating generation of engineers to the quest, then I might buy there was a Shadow Mars Program, but his cats and dogs of "X", neutralink and even Tesla are just his notions proposed, and then left to run wild. At least Tesla is paying the bills.