SpaceX engine for space economy

Government built the road to space, now it’s time to drive it

NASA has vowed to create a space economy, hence they support as diverse a group of commercial enterprises as possible. These range from small companies like Made in Space who specialize in 3D printers, all the way up to top tier SpaceX, the world’s go-to launch and communications company. However, government money is finite and at some point the space economy has to transition to a more commercial basis to become self-sustaining. Fortunately SpaceX shares this commitment to building a space economy because it’s integral to their goal of transforming us into a space faring civilization. Currently they are using their influence as the world’s alpha space company to establish this new economy, allowing it to grow organically and eventually take root in the farthest reaches of space.

Forcing Function

SpaceX’s decision to lower the price of space access (with Falcon 9) and data bandwidth (through their Starlink service) is part of a much larger strategy. By supplying these key services at highly competitive rates this forces companies to explore other areas and develop new space applications, something vital to expanding the space economy. Plenty of entrepreneurs seek to enter the space arena following the success of SpaceX, hence they need to get creative to discover new business niches that exploit the unique potential of space. And of course any space related business related will likely benefit greatly from low launch and communication costs, provided by SpaceX.

Human Factor

A functioning space economy needs people, because they supply the necessary consumer demand, and people require a lot of resources to live in space (air, food, water, power, communications etc). Hence SpaceX have made it as easy as possible to send people into space, as exemplified by their partnership with Axiom Space. So far they have manged to launch 12 private astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS), a massive increase compared to Soyuz, with many more to follow. Important to note these aren’t space tourists or joyriders, normally they perform commercial experiments during their stay, preparing the ground for a diverse and dynamic space economy. To illustrate: when an ESA astronaut goes to the ISS, typically they spend 8% of their time tending European experiments, because that is the proportion ESA contributes to the running costs of the station. However, private astronauts can spend 100% of their time on their own research projects, offering an express route to developing new space applications. Good example: 3D printed human organs and some drugs need microgravity to produce effectively, which made them commercially impractical until recently due to the high cost of launching a manufacturing facility. Now SpaceX have removed this obstacle through passing on the cost savings from launch vehicle reuse and are more than happy to assist such efforts.

Big Tech

We need to develop a significant amount of new technology and techniques to found a functional space economy, so SpaceX have partnered with the entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to create the Polaris Program. This private space program will consist of three crew missions: -

Polaris 1 (aka Polaris Dawn) – will prove SpaceX’s pioneer spacesuit by decompressing the Dragon spacecraft and performing a tethered spacewalk. Astronauts will also study how they physically adapt to space, and trial laser communications with Starlink satellites.

Polaris 2 – aims to service the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) to find the best techniques for working in space. Then they intend to use their Dragon spacecraft as a space tug to push the telescope to a higher and more sustainable orbit.

Polaris 3 – will be the first crew flight of their new Starship launch vehicle, likely with Jared Isaacman serving as commander, accompanied by a small support crew. Note: if fitted with high capacity seating, Starship could carry up to 1,000 people, something essential to any large scale space economy.

SpaceX have established good relations with the astronomy community, to receive their feedback on the effect of light interference caused by early Starlink satellites. Likely this friendly outreach will assist the transition to a wider use of space telescopes, which have distinct advantages with regards to image definition, as demonstrated by HST.

“[We have looked into] using Starship itself as structure for new giant telescope that’s >10X Hubble resolution. Was talking to Saul Perlmutter (who’s awesome) & he suggested wanting to do that.” ~ Elon Musk

Rally Starfleet

“We gotta make Starfleet happen... We really need to drive the rate of innovation to be such that we would see big-big breakthroughs, big improvements in space technology in the years to come. Just try to make Starfleet happen as soon as humanly possible and definitely while we’re still alive.” ~ Elon Musk/Air Force Association

SpaceX have long courted the Air Force, and now Space Force, to radically expand their use of space. In response the AFRL has awarded them $102m to investigate rocket cargo transport and more recently the DoD requested to use Starship for their own missions. This level of activity should take the space economy to a whole new level, particularly if they deploy a crew Starship to deep space for any length of time. Probably such missions will require regular resupply, refueling and personnel transfer, which should be commercially feasible with a fully reusable Starship.

New Worlds

While SpaceX are currently content to ferry people to the ISS, their ambition stretches far beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to other worlds. Humans evolved in a deep gravity well which suggests they will require gravity to thrive in the long-term. Therefore SpaceX believe the best place to establish new space settlements are on other worlds, which possess reasonable gravity plus an abundance of natural resources. As soon as Starship is operational, they plan to send thousands of people to the moon and a million to Mars to kick-start the space economy. At the beginning many will be scientists and explorers from space agencies like NASA and ESA, then likely expand to include the ISRO, ROSCOSMOS, CASC etc. These specialists will need a range of services supplied by commercial entities, which will require even more personnel, and so the settlement’s economy will grow. Eventually SpaceX want to make these settlements self-sustaining using each world’s natural resources, something made possible by advances in additive manufacturing and bio-engineering. Of course they will need large scale commercial transport for these new worlds, allowing humanity to ascend into a space faring civilization.

Big Finance

Realistically it could take $trillions to establish these space settlements over decades of concerted effort. Fortunately SpaceX’s Starlink revenue is projected to reach $1tn a year at software margins, which they are happy to invest going by past performance.

"Space Exploration Technologies Corp.'s (SpaceX) president and Chief Operating Officer (COO), Ms. Gwynne Shotwell, has outlined that the total addressable market (TAM) for her company's Starlink satellite-based internet service is $1 trillion." ~ wccftech

SpaceX won’t be alone in this effort, no doubt space agencies will supply $billions to send teams of specialists to these new world. Elon Musk has become the touchstone for successful business, as evidenced by the number of new space and electric vehicle startups, hence wherever he goes other entrepreneurs are sure to follow. No doubt these entrepreneurs will seize the opportunity offered by these new worlds and contribute $billions more to the cause. A case of: “build it and they will come.”

In conclusion

NASA has set the conditions for a space economy to emerge and now SpaceX have picked up the baton and run with it. By lowering launch and communications costs, they have laid the foundations for a vibrant space economy to grow. To speed the process they started a private space program to develop more vital technologies such as spacesuits, laser coms between spacecraft and space service vehicles.

Starting in LEO, SpaceX intend to spiral out to the moon then Mars, while providing the impetus for space settlements to grow through lowering costs. Realistically they only need a reasonable number of people for an economy to emerge to support life in these complex environments. If they discover anything on these new worlds that is commercially feasible to export, such as microbial life on Mars or exotic elements on the moon, it would merely be a bonus.

Creating a commercial space economy is one more step towards SpaceX’s shining goal of building new worlds to explore, taking humanity to a new level of enlightenment.

Chris Prophet