Hubble Mission Virtuous Circle
Positive Karma returns to NASA
SpaceX have a history of altruistic acts and charity to competitors but they have outdone themselves with their offer to perform a Hubble rescue mission for NASA. The Hubble Space Telescope is in trouble, conceivably it could reenter the earth’s atmosphere as early as 2026, depending on space weather. Fortunately SpaceX have offered to boost its orbit to 600km, likely extending its life by decades – free of charge! They propose a Crew Dragon spacecraft could dock with Hubble during the Polaris 2 mission (the second flight in their Polaris Program), to provide some well earned TLC to the veteran space telescope. Ideally they will replace 3 of its failed gyroscopes (used to point the telescope), then Dragon will fire its onboard thrusters to raise their combined orbit by ~100km, giving Hubble a new lease on life.
SpaceX owe a great deal to NASA, in 2008 they awarded SpaceX the first Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract worth $1.6bn, helping the company survive the great recession. However, SpaceX will dedicate a serious amount of resources to this mission, so the company must expect some karmic benefit at the very least, in addition to repaying NASA.
“SpaceX and the Polaris Program want to expand the boundaries of current technology and explore how commercial partnerships can creatively solve challenging, complex problems. Missions such as servicing Hubble would help us expand space capabilities to ultimately help all of us achieve our goals of becoming a space-faring, multiplanetary civilization.” ~ Jessica Jensen, vice president of Customer Operations & Integration at SpaceX
It seems SpaceX view this Hubble service mission as part of a virtuous circle that leads to increased space utilization, which facilitates the leap to new worlds. Polaris 2 will consist of many commercial firsts i.e: docking with an unmanned vehicle, satellite maintenance during a spacewalk, and concludes with ferrying a large external payload to a more sustainable orbit. So where do these capabilities lead, what commercial opportunities could they possibly open for SpaceX and how will this assist them to achieve their horizon goals?
Bridge Building
Over the last few years, relations have been strained between SpaceX and the astronomer community, due to their Starlink satellite’s effect on long exposure observations. This altruistic mission should certainly help to repair relations, considering the Hubble telescope’s central role to world astronomy. For example, the clear high definition images provided by this telescope have become invaluable for characterizing exoplanets (new worlds that orbit distant stars), allowing us to select the best candidates to visit when technology allows. Certainly astronomers worldwide will breath a sigh of relief when Hubble’s future is secured.
In addition, given the clear success of the Hubble and James Webb telescopes, many astronomers must be weighing whether to continue observations from Earth or deploy their own space telescopes in the near future. Certainly the prospects for orbital telescopes have markedly improved of late: -
Launch prices have declined to a tenth of historical levels, due to SpaceX’s drive for low cost reusable vehicles
AI software can provide finer control, fault recovery and flexibility
Earth observation satellites have become more mainstream, which suggests suitable hardware should now be available at commercial prices
Of course space telescopes are usually untended, making maintenance difficult in the case of mechanical failure. However, SpaceX have effectively provided a safety net with the Hubble, which demonstrates service missions can be possible at comparatively low cost. Overall SpaceX sales can expect a great deal more inquires from astronomers interested in space operations, near and far.
“[We’re looking at] using [Star]ship itself as structure for new giant telescope that’s >10X Hubble resolution. Was talking to Saul Perlmutter (who’s awesome) & he suggested wanting to do that.” ~ Elon Musk
Broader Applications
SpaceX launch a lot of commercial, civil and defense satellites to low and medium Earth orbits. Certainly SpaceX can now offer a discounted maintenance mission to anyone who launches with them, given their familiarity with these satellites. Polaris 2 potentially opens a whole new market, particularly with the advent of Starship.
“Let’s say you have a satellite and you launch it and something’s going wrong – you know the Hubble was serviced in orbit. Starship has a capability to open its payload bay, either bring the satellite back in, close it, pressurize it, work on it and redeploy it. If you want to just go see how your satellite is doing and if you’re getting interference in the GEO belt, maybe you want to go up there and take a look at your neighbors, seeing if they’re cheating or not, Starship will basically allow people to work and live in space and deploy technology that has not been able to be deployed.” ~ Gwynne Shotwell/SpaceX COO
The facility to service satellites anywhere up to GEO would be highly tempting to many operators, particularly the military. Defense satellites can take years to build and cost billions to replace, hence leave a sizable hole if they suddenly fail, considering their strategic role. If SpaceX can successfully demonstrate satellite repair with Hubble, likely that would create a ready made market for a Starship service vehicle. That in turn should acclimate Space Force to Starship, which could progress to them using it as a space cruiser, far outclassing the capabilities of any potential adversary for decades to come.
Big Space
What we can accomplish in space has long been limited by the physical size of payloads that can be fitted inside rocket fairings. However, if we can service satellites that should open the path to orbital construction. There’s no limit to the size of objects built in space, assuming availability of suitable construction materials. That means spacecraft, space stations and space complexes can be huge, ushering in what could best be described as ‘The Big Space Era.’ These spacecraft and space stations could have rotating sections, to simulate gravity for personnel, making them far better suited for long-term habitation. Simulated gravity should remove the risk of space sickness, deconditioning and balance issues on long duration missions to far worlds, allowing normal function when personnel arrive. Certainly SpaceX are aware of these potential benefits and already investigated using spin gravity on Mars missions.
Overall this leap in scale with space operations promises huge benefits for SpaceX and their customers. Space stations and moon bases can open to mass tourism, and deep space missions become commonplace – like reusable vehicle launches have already become from the Cape.
In Conclusion
SpaceX’s offer to service the Hubble takes them to a new level of altruism, which promises to be repaid ten fold in the future. The Polaris Program will culminate with the first crew launch of Starship, removing the last major barrier to the democratization of space. With major hazards removed normal people should travel to space routinely, like boarding a commercial airliner. Overall SpaceX’s future seems secure as long as they follow their vision of humanity as a space-faring species.