SpaceX Moon Plan
A Commercial Approach to the Moon
Since its inception SpaceX have fixedly followed their mission to colonize Mars. As the years progressed, each new rocket they produced was progressively larger, until finally they launched Starship, the first Mars capable spacecraft. But along the way something inexplicable happened, somehow their core mission expanded to include building a moon base... Normally the SpaceX CEO Elon Musk keeps them on-mission, ensuring each new piece of technology they produce can be used as a stepping stone to Mars. Previously he had been quite dismissive over the prospect of going to the moon first, because it would be an unnecessary diversion. This suggests SpaceX have subsequently determined that building a moon base will significantly advance their goal of Mars colonization, making it indispensable from their perspective.
SpaceX intend to deliver the heavy cargo and astronauts needed for base construction on a lunar variant of Starship, called Starship HLS (Human Landing System); something they are developing in partnership with NASA for the Artemis Program. So SpaceX would appear to have a commercial incentive for this endeavor as NASA would largely finance this base building effort at the lunar south pole. However, SpaceX have avoided similar commercial opportunities in the past: in early 2022 they essentially phoned in a bid to develop a commercial space station for NASA, based on their Starship design. This vehicle could have provided a similar pressurized volume to the ISS in one launch, potentially making it extremely profitable. No doubt SpaceX reasoned there was little to gain from operating a space station, because it wasn’t essential for their Mars plans, hence would divert valuable human resources away from their overall mission. Given the dichotomy in their response to these two projects, this suggests SpaceX sees some technical rather than economic advantage to building a moon base. To help identify these possible technical advantages, let’s review what we know about their plans so far.
SpaceX approach to the moon
What little we know about SpaceX plans for the moon is certainly intriguing…
“Last year, for example, the Dragon team began upgrading the Dragon dehumidifiers to make them ‘more manufacturable. That's because we know we have to have a dehumidifier on Starship in order to fly people in the Artemis Human Landing System program, as well as our own missions to the Moon and Mars.’” ~ Senior Director of Dragon Engineering Stuart Keech/SUPERCLUSTER
This implies SpaceX intend to mount their own missions to the lunar surface, likely hauling some serious tonnage onboard Starship. In addition, they appear to be preparing for surface operations, according to a close partner: -
“The EVA suits for Polaris Dawn are not meant for walking on the lunar surface or Mars. But IMHO it would be a mistake to think SpaceX will suddenly stop with our suits. I can't imagine SpaceX ready to launch a future Moon or Mars mission & be waiting on another company to deliver spacesuits.” ~ Polaris Project Founder Jared Isaacman
Jared Isaacman is a successful businessman currently working with SpaceX on their joint Polaris Program. This privately funded project will develop new space technologies, like extravehicular activity (EVA) suits, laser communications and satellite servicing, in order to expand the scope of commercial space activities. Interestingly, NASA contracted with two other companies to develop the EVA suits their astronauts will use for Artemis moon landings. Quite surprisingly, SpaceX didn’t submit a bid for this lucrative NASA contract, presumably because they wanted to develop a suit relatively quickly and avoid NASA red tape. Producing an EVA suit in parallel to NASA could be costly but it does allow SpaceX to build it to their own specifications, for their own purposes. Generally SpaceX prefer to build all the technology they use themself, to ensure reasonable price, quality and delivery, and make sure they are completely conversant with its operation and maintenance.
Overall it seems likely SpaceX have their own plans for the moon, here’s what their responsible director said during a panel discussion: -
"The thing I'm most excited about [with NASA's Artemis] is all of the surface elements, [since] Starship is fundamentally designed to transport very, very large amounts of cargo. [SpaceX is] excited to integrate things like habitats and rovers and supplies [with Starship to make a] rich ecosystem of technologies [for an] incredible Moon base. [Thinking about a Moon base analogous to Everest base camp,] staffed by hundreds or thousands of scientists and explorers." ~ SpaceX Director of Civil Space Development Nick Cumming/CST2022
Cumming’s infers this “Everest base camp” could be built as part of the Artemis program, which is strange because NASA has something more conservative in mind: -
“In the future, NASA envisions a fixed habitat at the Artemis Base Camp that can house up to four astronauts for a month-long stay.” ~ Lunar Living: NASA’s Artemis Base Camp Concept
Quite the disparity, yet understandable from NASA’s point of view. In late 2022 NASA awarded SpaceX a $1.15bn contract for a single Starship HLS mission to ferry 4 astronauts to the lunar surface. From this we can extrapolate it might cost NASA ~$0.5tn to transport “thousands of scientists and explorers” to the moon, and this figure could easily surpass $1tn if the cost of surface habitats was included. Which explains NASA’s diffidence, because congress would likely pass out if a fraction of this figure appeared in their yearly budget request. Hence it’s unfeasible for NASA to even consider such an ambitious undertaking as it would never pass congress.
Perhaps what we can divine from all this is SpaceX intend to build something substantial on the moon in parallel with the Artemis Program. Obviously this would entail significant financial outlay on their part, so let’s explore what SpaceX have to gain from engaging in deep space operations.
Mars ❤️ Moon
Elon wants to extend human existence to Mars in the next 5 to 10 years, hence he’s developing all the technologies needed to establish a functional Mars settlement, e.g: -
Pressurized Rover – based on Tesla’s Cybertruck
Boring Machine – produced by The Boring Company
Solar Array and Energy Storage – via Tesla
In Situ Propellant Production – through SpaceX
Autonomous Robot – based on Tesla Bot
Satellite Communications – using a deep space version of Starlink
Space Transport – cargo/crew variants of the Starship spacecraft
However, all this technology could equally be applied to building a settlement on the moon, with only moderate adaptation. SpaceX intend to dig tunnels on Mars for use as underground habitats (to protect from surface radiation), which should be magnitudes cheaper and safer than relying on surface habitats. The Boring Company’s Prufrock-3 machine is electrically powered and can excavate 7 miles of tunnels per day at 3.7m diameter, allowing substantial underground shelters to be constructed almost in days.
Power too is cheap and plentiful on the moon, the sun never sets on elevated sections of the lunar south pole, allowing uninterrupted power generation from solar arrays. Normally the cost of operating Starship flights to the moon is prohibitive due to the high number of tanker flights needed to refuel these spacecraft before they can return to Earth. Except the lunar south pole has permanently shadowed craters endowed with rich surface deposits of frozen water and carbon dioxide/monoxide, which could be synthesized into methalox rocket propellant using the abundant solar power.
“Starship propellant is ~78% oxygen, so an O2 plant on the moon would be enough [to refuel lunar Starship].” ~ Elon Musk
Building a lunar propellant plant sounds like a really difficult and expensive proposition, unless you operate something as truly capable as Starship: -
“The logical thing to do is basically outfit one of the ships as a propellant plant itself, and just land it on the planet as a working propellant plant. And then you just need little miner droids to go dig up ice and bring it back and unfurl the solar panels.” ~ Elon Musk/Popular Mechanics
Essentially SpaceX would use the moon as a testing ground for all their Mars technologies, creating what is effectively a prototype space settlement. It’s quite critical these technologies and techniques are field tested before they attempt Mars colonization, because spares or replacements could only be sent to Mars every 26 months. Fortunately the moon is just a few days travel from Earth, hence equipment supply shouldn’t be a problem for the proto-settlers. So overall there appears no technical reason why SpaceX couldn’t create a prototype settlement on the moon, assuming they can adapt all the equipment they intend to send to Mars. Which leaves the question of how SpaceX intend to turn this moon operation into a financial business, to recoup their initial investment.
Commercial Space Settlement
Realistically there’s little to be found on the moon or Mars that’s economic to export back to Earth. The cost is simply too high to import any materials already found on Earth, because it’s easier and cheaper to mine or synthesize them here and avoid the cost of space transport. So what SpaceX intend is to export people, as they say “thousands of scientists and explorers.” Likely these people will want their own equipment, a suitable workspace, accommodation, surface transport etc after they arrive – all of which is chargeable. As we’ve discovered, sending a few people at a time can only be afforded by billionaires or governments, but if SpaceX send a hundred people per flight that could make the business case close. Starship is phenomenally cheap to operate due to its fully reusable design; SpaceX claim the cost to launch is little more than the price of the fuel (which they can make themself from water, air and sunshine). So with regards the commercial viability of the moon, it seems a case of: “build it and they will come” – as long as they can provide economic transport. After this service is established it could be expanded to include tourists – probably the ultimate location for a bragging rights vacation. Once tourists arrive it should engender a moon economy, to service this inrush of visitors. In the final analysis, whether SpaceX breaks even or not isn’t so important as proving their proto-settlement works, because their goal has ever been Mars and all the promise it holds…
Big Picture
When SpaceX commit to something they do so wholeheartedly. Instead of creating a lunar outpost they intend to go full bore on the moon and build something closer to an underground city, a veritable lunopolis. Likely they will receive full support from NASA in this endeavor because it supports their strategic goal to create a diverse and sustainable space economy.
“Throughout this century, NASA has focused on increasing private-sector involvement in space, laying a foundation for long-term exploration where Government agencies are one of several customers in a vibrant space economy.” ~ NASA Strategic Plan 2022
Whether SpaceX receive any financial support to complete their lunopolis project has only minor relevance. The return from commercial projects like Starlink and Starshield will increase exponentially over the next few years, organically providing all the funds necessary to cover the costs. Seems insane a commercial entity would lay-out more money than the US government to build a moon base, but when you’re as dedicated to progress as SpaceX, profit becomes a secondary consideration. Historically, SpaceX needed Falcon Heavy and Starship to fulfill their corporate goal, so were happy to fund development themself; from this perspective a moon base is simply the next logical step on the road to Mars.
As a side benefit, this moon operation should give SpaceX a commercial opportunity to ramp Starship’s launch cadence. They need huge scale to make Mars colonization practical, perhaps a fleet of over 1,000 Starships in operation, plying between Earth and Mars. Hence moon operations should synergize with Mars colonization as they both share launch and orbital infrastructure as well as in situ technologies. Overall a vibrant moon base could be a perfect model for a sustainable Mars settlement, making it a practical diversification for SpaceX – and ideal recruitment/training ground for potential Mars colonists...