Link to First Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution
CHAPTER 9: MARS LINCHPIN
“SpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not. Today SpaceX is actively developing the technologies to make this possible, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars.1” ~ SpaceX Job Advertisement
Beyond doubt Mars is the linchpin for all SpaceX plans, and beyond that the focus of Elon’s long-term strategy. However, some might argue there’s little reason to settle Mars, perhaps even unethical; conditions are harsh and it possesses no material resources worth transporting back to Earth. Sadly, this fails to take into account the long-term potential for Mars, which will likely become the hub of any future space economy. Earth’s deep gravity well makes it unsuited to launch large payloads into space, a key reason why permanent space settlement hasn’t already occurred. Once past the gravity threshold the only barrier to space settlement is our imagination. The technical resources and understanding required are all extant, it just takes a commitment to climb out of the well.
Once on Mars, surface conditions like low temperatures/atmospheric pressure can be mitigated – with sufficient power you can do anything. No doubt one of the first things Mars settlers will accomplish upon arrival is to deploy fields of solar arrays to create solar energy farms; certainly there’s no shortage of ground-space or clouds to block direct sunlight on this virgin world. Later on nuclear reactors will generate a surplus of power, with any waste heat used to warm the community. Most of the settlement would be placed underground, to avoid surface hazards like low air pressure and solar/cosmic radiation. Mainly these underground structures would consist of a spiderweb of interconnected caverns a few tens of meters below the surface, excavated by boring machines through ice bearing regolith. This should provide ample protection from even the worst solar storm, because a roof of water impregnated rock would make an ideal radiation shield. No doubt these sub-structures could be hermetically sealed, to allow adequate air pressure throughout. For instance, the walls sprayed with a fast-setting sealant, which should also help insulate against the cold. So no technical justification why such a settlement couldn’t exist, assuming a suitable supply of qualified personnel and specialized equipment.
At present there appears little reason anyone would divest themselves of the comforts of Earth for a hard-bitten world like Mars, literally there’s nothing there – at present. Fast forward a few decades and that perspective might radically alter, for a number of reasons: -
1. Once adequate sub-surface facilities are in-place on Mars, that should constitute somewhere worth living and working in, considering the rewards. In such a scenario, people would be in relatively short supply, with no shortage of work and plenty of money cascading into the community from SpaceX, Tesla and many of the space agencies, who will probably send numerous exploratory missions given the opportunity. Under these circumstances, dollars would seem like pennies on Mars, which implies anyone willing to migrate could earn millions in a relatively short period; if suitably qualified and willing to go the extra yards.
Succinctly: Mars will become a gold rush.
2. Likely two tiers will emerge for professionals by this time, those who work or have worked for a Musk enterprise and those who have not. This would be seen as a gold seal on any resume, proof the person is a motivated professional, able to handle the extreme technologies and challenges espoused by these elite corporations. Competition to work at these avant-garde companies would be intense, with a synod or two spent on Mars seen as a small price to pay – even a bonus by some.
“[Testimony from former employee] after a few stress filled and exhausting years you will leave with a crazy amount of experience, knowledge, credibility, and stocks. When you leave SpaceX you will be offered an interview and a job at every company you apply to. The name SpaceX is respected by almost everyone and former SpaceX employees are sought after in the industry because If you can make it at SpaceX for a few years, then you can make it anywhere.1” ~ Robert/Launch Topics
3. It seems almost inevitable that Earth will become increasingly inhospitable in the future. For example, personal freedoms will continue to be curtailed with the expansion of the security state and national bureaucracy. Similarly personal security will dwindle as our world becomes saturated with firearms and mass shootings a daily occurrence. In addition profound disruption, like the world’s transition from carbon-based energy, will result in many parallel wars in marginalized nations. For example, countries who mainly rely on oil exports will likely balkanize as their economies rapidly decline. In addition more autocratic countries, like China and Russia, will continue to push into neighboring territories, if only to prove their leader’s strength to their own people, and remove any sanctuary for dissidents. This in turn could trigger a worldwide conflict as red lines are crossed, like the invasion of Taiwan, Japan or Baltic states. By comparison Mars will have no guns, no wars and offer great personal freedom as a reward. This will be seen as an oasis of humanity amongst all Earth’s woes. Why endure fear and servitude when there’s an abundance of freedom on Mars?
“I think we are heading to an interesting and different world and I hope that we can remember that, you know we are all human beings, and let’s just try to have as positive a relationship as possible and work towards mutual prosperity of humanity as a whole.3” ~ Elon Musk/ Wall Street Journal interview
4. Settlement’s continue to exist because they have a functioning local economy. Hence Mars will transition to become self-sustaining as soon as possible due to the inherent difficulty and cost of importing goods from Earth. That will generate almost an endless supply of Mars entrepreneurs to provide all the goods and services needed by this ever-burgeoning community. Energy, air, food, water, propellant, you name it and Mars will pay a premium. No doubt whoever’s in charge will do everything to foster the indigenous economy in order to reduce their dependence on Earth, improve living conditions and, in the process, ensure their long-term survival.
Once on Mars, people should find conditions steadily improve, considering the number of engineers per capita – due in large part to SpaceX and Tesla influence. Families will spring up then schools and universities, ready for the next big expansion. Returning to Earth’s gravity might present a hazard for the next generation but the main belt, Trojan asteroids and moons of the outer worlds should be ideal for these second-generation entrepreneurs. Then seemingly overnight, Mars slips into its destined role as the hub of a spacefaring species. All the resources of an entire world, with gravity a fraction of Earth, means Mars will likely become the go-to planet for space technology.
SpaceX are predicated on growth, so they will use that technology to go farther and continue to open new worlds. This shows a clear trajectory for their future, as an independent power in the realm of space operations.
“The [Starship] technology will likely be similar to Dragon, but the design, usage, and goals of the onboard Starship UI [User Interface] are notably different from Dragon. The Dragon Crew Displays are three touchscreens in a small vehicle with a singular destination, supporting a small group of passengers and their cargo. Starship will fly missions to locations worldwide, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The Starship UI must be usable on devices and touchscreens of all sizes around the vehicle (common areas, living quarters, loading areas, and the bridge) and must support users with completely different jobs and skillsets.3” ~ Asher Dunn – Lead Starship Software developer
Link to next installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution-chapter-10
1 https://launchtopics.com/working-at-spacex-is-it-worth-it/
2
3 https://old.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/ncj4vz/we_are_the_spacex_software_team_ask_us_anything/gy8wauq/