Link to First Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution
CHAPTER 10: MARS ECONOMY
To show how SpaceX intend to develop Mars into a self-sustaining world it should help to describe how the economy will grow organically. Let’s break it down into three phases of development to illustrate how their current efforts are designed to produce an independent city on Mars.
Phase 1: Mars Base Alpha
Mars Base Alpha should essentially consist of a number of Starships, ideally comprised of 2 crew Starships accompanied by around twice that number of cargo vehicles. Depending on the success they have landing these large vehicles in difficult circumstances, this initial settlement should support up to 12 people over a 26 month period. The first landers primary responsibility is to construct underground habitation/work areas, to protect from solar storms. Such storms can occur without warning and while there’s some provision against solar radiation onboard Starship, there’s no substitute for meters of rock to provide adequate shielding. Assuming these sanctuaries are in place their next priority would be to accelerate the production of ISRU propellant needed for their safe return to Earth. ISRU production should be highly automated, although it would no doubt benefit from the human touch, to supply the necessary finesse.
This nascent community would have all their needs cared for, free and gratis, although restricted to the items brought with them or easily supplied (e.g. virtual products from Earth). No doubt some kind of barter system for goods and services may exist, but there should be no real need for money – essentially the community is too small and interdependent for such sophistication. A good analogy might be a beehive, where everyone collectively benefits from superior performance in their respective roles. For these highly skilled and motivated professionals, monetary reward would probably be the last thing on their mind.
It seems likely these first landers would be supplied exclusively by Musk, i.e. corporate colony builders, ISRU operatives and life support specialists. Even so, it’s quite possible they might discover some tantalizing hints of life on Mars, either extant or extinct. Simple life appeared relatively early after our Earth was formed and Mars originally possessed similar conditions, so it seems quite likely life evolved in parallel on the primordial red planet. However, for any such discovery to be confirmed, teams of scientists would need to be dispatched to the surface; unfortunately organic samples couldn’t be returned to Earth due to planetary protection protocols. I say teams because every space agency would want to participate in this effort, the scientific draw of investigating an entirely original lifeform would be enormous. In addition these teams would need to discover why the evolutionary process derailed on Mars, if only to avoid the same thing happening here on Earth.
Essentially life is saying: “come get to know me better on Mars.”
Beyond doubt these early colonists will have to rely on their own abilities to solve problems and fix equipment. Any machinery, spares or materials required are unlikely to come from Earth outside the normal 26 month launch window. Which implies colonist’s will have to be highly technical capable and used to working on their own initiative to address their urgent needs. This should foster a culture of tough self-reliance and overall assist the colony to become self-sustaining as soon as practically possible.
Phase 2 Mars Community
Once basic infrastructure is in place, the Mars settlement should be ready to receive all the scientists, entrepreneurs and explorers eager for this new world. Currently SpaceX fly both civil and commercial astronauts to the ISS, so there seems no reason why flights in Phase 2 couldn’t be mixed (i.e. include passengers sponsored by space agencies and corporations, in addition to private individuals).
At this point some form of electronic currency should enter general use,1 largely displacing the previous barter system (see Chapter 14: X.com Right or Wrong). This would allow clean transactions for goods, products and services, i.e. fast, free from tax and centrally monitored, to help resolve any disputes and minimize fraud. In fact any kind of tax would be seen as unnecessary bureaucracy and a drag on the economy. Anyone traveling to Mars would pay SpaceX for their berth, to cover all services enroute (i.e. air/food/water/etc). Then upon arrival, travelers would typically pay the Boring Company for underground lodging and Tesla for local services (i.e. android assistants, surface transport and specialized equipment). This should ensure the colony has a strong commercial base, able to quickly respond to individual needs and best suited to maintain and expand the community. If this funding proves insufficient to support the colony, more units of electronic currency can be issued (in a process similar to quantitative easing), which in turn should help expand the economy.
Given the rate of Starship production, the number of flights to Mars should quickly exceed 100, for each Earth-Mars synod. Any return flights would be relatively light; realistically there’s little commercial reason to return physical items from Mars, except for people. Even Starships would be largely obsolete by the time they returned to Earth, so the majority will be kept on Mars for parts and materials, to help the colony grow.
As previously discussed, SpaceX intend for Mars citizens to govern themself, through establishing their own set of laws. This appears highly practical as it would be unwieldy to try law cases on Earth for infractions performed on another world. In addition this should largely free the Martian people from the parochial politics of Earth, which might prove unsympathetic to their urgent needs. Mars will likely become a functional technocracy (see Chapter 11, Mars Politics),2 due to SpaceX’s backing and influence. Hence its laws will likely enshrine the principle of corporate freedom, i.e. zero taxation and minimum bureaucracy. This should greatly stimulate local commerce, enabling them to become self-sufficient before the end of the century.
Towards the end of Phase 2 you might expect companies on Mars to make some serious technological advances. This would happen for three key reasons: -
1. Critical mass of highly skilled engineers.
2. Freedom from restrictions and adequate funding (e.g. enterprise loans of electronic currency).
3. Urgent need for new technology to solve novel problems.
These advances will likely occur in areas of most pressing need such as energy generation (e.g. nuclear fission/fusion), food production (e.g. vertical farming/aquaponics/microorganism culturing etc) and recycling (e.g. air/water/waste management). Doubtless many of these new technologies will find sound commercial applications here on Earth, so largely reproduced here by Musk companies, granting them ever deeper commercial advantage.
Likely too in this period, SpaceX will start to develop mega-carriers; mammoth spacecraft capable of transporting thousands at a time between inhabited worlds. These deep space vessels would be so large they could only be constructed in space, likely in Mars orbit. Starships would then be relegated to construction vessels or used to shuttle passengers to and from these mega-carriers, using high density seating (similar to commercial aircraft). Earth would quickly become reliant on these Mars mega-carriers for space transport, due to their commercial efficiency and ease of use. Realistically Earth might attempt to create their own equivalents but likely these would prove technically inferior and far more expensive/difficult to build due to Earth’s deep gravity well – and SpaceX’s preference for Mars.
At this point the Mars economy should really take off as new investment floods in to take advantage of the huge opportunities, commercial freedom and tax advantages.
Finally towards the end of Phase 2 we should see this virgin world really open-up to new arrivals. The prospect of tunnel life is hardly an advert for Mars, so expect conditions to change rapidly as population needs grow. Some extinct volcanoes on Mars possess extraordinary lava tunnels some tens of kilometers wide and hundreds of kilometers long, which could be adapted for human habitation. One of these caverns could become a man-made Eden, complete with functioning ecosystem, where it might go unnoticed you are deep underground. Who wouldn’t want to live in a paradise protected by the state, with ample space for houses, schools and vineyards?
Phase 3
We can barely imagine what a city of a million can accomplish, particularly when it’s populated and run by a majority of engineers and technicians. No doubt some mega-projects would be initiated in this period which make the Manhattan project look like small potatoes. Here’s a list of a few prime candidates: -
1. Planetary terraforming, perhaps suitable for Mars and outer worlds.
2. Practical interstellar transport, using some form of space warping technology.
3. Accelerated genetic adaptation to new environments.
Overall Mars should be at the forefront of these efforts because that’s where the technology comes from. Anyone serious about pursuing a technical profession would likely head to Mars due to unbounded opportunities and better remuneration.
Given the consequent decline of Earth, and Mars’s unbridled expansion, we could probably expect the space economy to exceed our own after only a few centuries. Nothing could compete with an economy which has tuned development to the max across all spheres, with unlimited space for expansion. And, of course, in the center of all this will be SpaceX, a beacon of all that’s possible. Arguably this effect has already begun, with many more launch startups springing up to follow their example, hoping to share in their unbridled success and glory. However, SpaceX will likely remain the backbone of all space activity in this far-flung future, due to their incredible reach, incomparable technology and unparalleled human capital.
Link to Next Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution-chapter-11
Is chapter 11 published yet? I just completed a series (publishing in Jan/Feb) which concludes with envisioning a Martian government. It’s a fun thought experiment and I pulled in elements of Helen Landemore, Garret Jones, and other people who have dared question Western-style representative government.
The problem is always trying to balance the will of the people with technocratic expertise. One idea I like is giving bondholders a say in government through an "upper" house in the legislature. Surely a Martian colony is going to need a lot of startup funding and could sell bonds to get there (how cool is that?) Those bondholders will have a keen interest in the colony's long-term success. They would bring that technocratic expertise to the table where it is needed most.