For many reasons Starship is a game-changer, which promises a fundamental change to our utilization of space. To achieve anything substantial in space requires a Super Heavy Lift (SHL) rocket, such as NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) used to launch the Orion spacecraft to lunar orbit as part of the Artemis program. Currently SLS costs around $4.1bn to perform one launch every 2 years, due to its inherent complexity and low production rate. However, once Starship enters operation it could launch an equivalent payload (150 tonnes) for ~$1.5m and manage up to 20 launches/day. A 4 orders of magnitude improvement in launch capability, due to full and rapid reusability and accelerated production rate. In all likelihood this step change in capability will produce a paradigm shift in how we approach space, with some far reaching implications.
SHORT TERM IMPLICATIONS
Megaconstellations
Starship should allow large constellations, such as Gen2 Starlink and Starshield, to be deployed up to ten times faster, at a tenth of the normal cost. Once operational the financial return from these constellations will more than cover the development costs of Starship and any further applications (point-to-point transport, Moon and Mars landers etc).
Artemis
This launch demonstrates to NASA that SpaceX are still on track to provide a Human Landing System (HLS) version of Starship in time for the first moon landing attempt on Artemis III. Starship HLS will require considerable more development to complete than SLS/Orion, which effectively had a half decade head-start for construction and largely utilizes pre-existing technology. However, considering the maiden launch of both vehicles occurred only months apart this indicates SpaceX are moving at a much faster pace and should overtake SLS/Orion development – ensuring Starship HLS should be ready when needed.
MEDIUM TERM IMPLICATIONS
Propellant Depots
The ability to perform fast launch of large payloads should allow SpaceX to deploy a refueling station in Earth orbit with significant capacity, i.e. able to fully refuel a Starship before any outbound voyage. This effectively breaks the rocket equation, opening up the entire inner solar system to sustained human exploration.
Moon or Mars
It has been long debated whether the moon or Mars should be our focus for space development, primarily driven by the sheer cost of attempting either. However, Starship’s operating cost is so low, it will allow us to pursue both the moon and Mars in parallel. Operational costs could be further reduced by using the same infrastructure for both Moon and Mars missions. Starship manufacturing facilities, launch sites and orbital refueling depots would effectively become common resources for both efforts. Moreover, this dual approach should allow faster space development, because you can achieve twice as much in parallel compared to a more conventional serial operation.
“I think 5 years is possible and 10 years is highly likely [for human existence on Mars]” ~ Elon Musk
Overall the moon or Mars debate appears to have been largely resolved, considering SpaceX’s timeframe to send the first people to Mars coincides with NASA’s schedule for moon landings. Likely we will see uncrewed Starships land on the moon and Mars in the next 4-6 years, followed by crewed landings around the turn of the decade.
Robots or People
Again our approach to space is riven between two camps, those who prefer automata verses those who champion crew operations. Unfortunately both options have proven extremely expensive in the past, particularly for long range missions. Starship could effectively resolve this issue, allowing both efforts to proceed in parallel or indeed together. Humans and robots are best suited to different tasks: people are highly creative and flexible, whereas robots possess remarkable endurance. Hence if they are sent together on each mission it would harness the capabilities of both, something made possible by Starship’s huge payload capacity and inherently low operating cost.
At present robotic explorers are custom designed to have minimum mass and volume, due to the limited capacity of existing launch vehicles. However, once mass and volume constraints are effectively removed, these automata can be mass produced using Commercially Of the Shelf (COTS) components, effectively reducing their manufacturing cost by at least 2 magnitudes. Unlike priceless humans, these low cost robots wouldn’t need expensive environmental control, nutrition or accommodation, and happily work 24-7 in a vacuum! Overall they would make the perfect partners for human settlers, leaving them free to oversee the building process and expand in situ utilization of materials and manufacturing. In fact it could be be argued that meaningful space development can only be achieved by humans and robots working in cooperation, due to their complementary capabilities.
What was previously a question of: “should we send people or robots?” has now become: “how many do we send of both?”
Point-to-Point
Starship is the first to market with ballistic transport capability, something the DoD are unlikely to ignore. Expect a significant contract to be placed for point-to-point services in the medium term, once the initial study contract has been completed.
“AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory) will have access to SpaceX’s commercial orbital launches and booster landings to collect key data on environments, signatures and performance. SpaceX also will provide cargo bay designs that support rapid load and unload and are compatible with U.S. TRANSCOM intermodal containers. The contract also includes an option for a full-up demonstration of heavy cargo transport and landing.” ~ Spacenews.com
Space Security
Increased space activity (commercial, civil and military) will likely require a space equivalent of the coast guard, to provide security, search and rescue. No doubt Space Force would like to investigate this further, by conducting their own crew missions.
“As nations move out, and as the economy grows between here and the lunar surface, I think it’s an area that will be significant… As things progress in space, I do see that there may be a role for [Space Force] guardians that will be in space,” ~ Chief of Space Operations General John “Jay” Raymond/Spacenews.com
LONG TERM IMPLICATIONS
What we imagined might be possible with legacy launch technology has effectively been overwritten by Starship. Essentially it signals the beginning of a broader and more responsible use of space, starting at Low Earth Orbit.
Low Earth Orbit
All manner of LEO enterprises will benefit from this Starship revolution because it is primarily designed to push high tonnages to Earth orbit without refueling. While this might result in increasingly populated space in the short term, in the long term there will likely be a shift to a more sustainable model in order to preserve this finite resource. In addition, allowing satellites and rocket stages to reenter uncontrolled will become the height of irresponsibility given the tonnages involved and risk to the environment, property and people. Hence it is just a question of time before the use of orbital space becomes more legislated with regards to safety and sustainability. This will require the creation of many new orbital industries, such as satellite servicing/repair and orbital manufacturing, which should then lead to satellite material recycling.
Interestingly the US Space Force is already committed to buying orbital debris removal as a commercial service, which could potentially act as a springboard to create these vital orbital industries.
Fortunately this safe use of space will enable even more ambitious space complexes, such as tended observatories, hotels, passenger terminals and a whole lot more…
“I see Walmarts on orbit full of cargo. I see Triple A on orbit … Ubers on orbit… full-up service stations on orbit that might even have [Space Force] guardians on board to fix up ailing spacecraft.” ~ Colonel Meredith Beg, Space Systems Command’s deputy director of Operations, Servicing & Maneuver/Breaking Defense
Solar Expansion
Starship’s true destiny is to transport us to the far reaches of our solar system. Realistically we might expect tended radio telescopes on the moon, a Mars colony of a million people, even manned missions to Mercury and Venus (orbit). However, that’s just the start, once propellant can be produced in situ on Mars or the asteroid belt, Starship could take us much farther. Research, exploration and colonization should become possible almost anywhere in the solar system, including a fair amount of commerce, particularly of virtual products.
Horizon Goal
This increased activity in space will likely lead to the development of improved engines (probably nuclear) which are primarily designed for use in space. These should allow the construction of far larger spacecraft, dedicated space transports, that enable us to go even farther.
“People tell us we’re crazy every day, but we need to ignore that and push forward. We are trying to find a breakthrough in propulsion technology that allows us to go beyond the Moon, beyond Mars, beyond the entire Solar System. Certainly, within 50 years we’ll have a path that will allow us to fly to other worlds.” ~ SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell
The future is bright thanks to Starship. You could say space is now open for business.
Coming soon on Substack: -
Next Gen Starship - analysis of SpaceX’s future launch vehicles and space transport.
Building the Space Superhighway - how SpaceX will open a cislunar transport network.
If SpaceX discovers life on Mars - potential pitfalls and promise from finding life on Mars.
Space apps enabled by Starship - details the new commercial space applications made possible by Starship.
Managing Mars - laying the foundations for a viable Mars colony.
SpaceX Master Plan - SpaceX strategy to achieve their horizon goal.
SpaceX Paradigm - illustrates how SpaceX are a step evolution in the space business.
And of course continued serialization of “SpaceX Evolution,” an access-all-areas book about SpaceX.
Wow: you manage to make the potential for space enabled by Starship so vivid and real it gives me goose bumps! From Science Fiction to Science Reality: my teenagers may actually experience real business and space, and their kids might get to go to Mars, even if as non-astronauts. So cool!