It is best to think of Starship as a platform, not a rocket. The capabilities are so vast that, even if the Starship upper stage is not as reusable as hoped the platform will unlock capabilities that we cannot yet fully imagine.
The question is, will regulations and terrestrial distractions ground it first?
For me Super Heavy is the true foundation that variations on Starship (and Starship tech) can be built on for LEO and beyond, but now I am waiting to see what real payload-to-LEO, reliability and reuse reliability is demonstrated in 2024. I am pretty confident of Starship lowering the cost per kg to LEO, and increasing the integrated mass and especially volume to LEO. But for the rest, I will hope for the best.
Per point-to-point, eventually one might see a different shaped highly reusable vehicle that uses 9-12 MethLOX, Raptor V3 or 4 for tourism or military purposes as a single stage (but alas, probably not SSTO, but imagine a quick trip for 6 to LEO and carbon composites ... just maybe that 2T payload might SSTO).
It is best to think of Starship as a platform, not a rocket. The capabilities are so vast that, even if the Starship upper stage is not as reusable as hoped the platform will unlock capabilities that we cannot yet fully imagine.
The question is, will regulations and terrestrial distractions ground it first?
"The question is, will regulations and terrestrial distractions ground it first?"
Plus point for commercial space: Starship development will continue until Elon Musk finds a better way to colonize Mars.
For me Super Heavy is the true foundation that variations on Starship (and Starship tech) can be built on for LEO and beyond, but now I am waiting to see what real payload-to-LEO, reliability and reuse reliability is demonstrated in 2024. I am pretty confident of Starship lowering the cost per kg to LEO, and increasing the integrated mass and especially volume to LEO. But for the rest, I will hope for the best.
Per point-to-point, eventually one might see a different shaped highly reusable vehicle that uses 9-12 MethLOX, Raptor V3 or 4 for tourism or military purposes as a single stage (but alas, probably not SSTO, but imagine a quick trip for 6 to LEO and carbon composites ... just maybe that 2T payload might SSTO).