Starlink Guiding Star
Starlink exposes inequities and offers a solution
The Starlink Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation now consists of over 5,000 satellites, beaming broadband services to anywhere and everyone around the world. Instead of boosting prices for this novel service SpaceX offers lower rates than legacy providers, who operate satellites at Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) that service median latitudes at lower bandwidth. Starlink is a radical step in technology with far reaching implications, some already being felt around the world which could lead to some surprising outcomes…
Starlink Promise
We in the west regard internet access almost as a basic human right, however, for many it’s far more constrained. Autocratic countries like China, Russia and Iran maintain a tight rein on their versions of the internet to avoid uncomfortable truths. Inequities and injustices abound in such places and their entire culture has been constructed to avoid confronting these issues. An extreme example would be North Korea, where you are taught to only love the supreme leader, not your mother, father, siblings or spouse because that would be disloyal to the leader… The one thing such cultures rely on is control of information, because people tend to believe what they are told by the state. Hence Starlink poses a real danger to autocrats everywhere because it threatens to unravel their web of lies and collapse the regime. As Nelson Mandela once said: “the truth will set you free.”
Starlink Reach
"Any human country can say its illegal to have a ground link. From our [SpaceX’s] standpoint we could conceivably continue to broadcast [Starlink] and they'd have a choice of either shooting our satellites down... or not.” ~ Elon Musk
Most despotic regimes have banned Starlink use in their country to ensure their propaganda goes unchallenged. However, people have found clever ways to circumvent this ban such as registering an RV Starlink in an approved country then shipping it to somewhere it’s banned. In addition, if SpaceX want conventional Starlink receivers to operate in any country or region, this can be accomplished relatively easily via software control, like flicking a switch. Certainly this seems to be the case with Iran where Starlink kits are smuggled across the border and operate normally. Note Iran isn’t an isolated incident, Elon Musk confirmed he’s willing to activate Starlink in other dictatorial countries like Cuba, to help win the information war. Wherever Starlink lands will spark a small ground-fire, something the regime will find impossible to stamp out, given enough systems.
Starlink Applications
When the Iranian opposition were violently suppressed by the state during the Mahsa Amini protests in late 2022, SpaceX decided to activate their Starlink service across the country, counter to the regime’s wishes. More recently it was revealed 800 Starlink systems have been smuggled into Iran, shattering the embargo. These terminals should help the populace to understand and counter the disinformation they are fed daily by state media, overall a great place to start. However, the most potent application for Starlink is as a communications network, allowing dissidents to organize into cells and create an underground network. No doubt black market traders also use it to improve their operations, allowing them to supply even more Starlink systems, and possibly provide sufficient resources for an uprising. Essentially anyone who owns a Starlink system has become a potent symbol, either as a supporter or facilitator of the opposition.
Hoping the Iranian regime will suddenly disappear after a comparatively minor intervention might seem like wishful thinking. However, the Iranian authorities paint US and UK flags on the floors of thoroughfares and stairs to encourage people to trample them. Ironically many Iranians, who perhaps have experience of the west or access to VPNs, choose to walk around these flags much to the regime’s annoyance. Clearly there is a wellspring of dissatisfaction waiting to be tapped, particularly as the theocratic rulers become increasingly disconnected from the youth, who constitute the majority in this unusually youthful country.
Starlink Strength
Starlink is light and extremely easy to operate, just point at the sky and plug-in. Literally anyone can use it if they have access to a smartphone or computer. In addition, it employs radio beams to communicate with multiple satellites at a time, making it extremely difficult to jam. The software is incredibly robust because SpaceX is continually attacked by hackers hence past masters at defeating all-comers. To illustrate, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hackers managed to disable all Viasat terminals on day 1, while it was just another working day for Starlink. Russian communications are poor and spotty, which gave Ukraine an incredible advantage after they switched to widespread use of Starlink for command and control. In an attempt to correct this asymmetry, Russian forces have also started to use smuggled Starlink systems in occupied regions, allowing their soldiers unfiltered access to western accounts of the conflict. No doubt they will soon discover some uncomfortable truths regarding the quality of their equipment: -
Some Ratnik 6B45 body armor is actually a cheap Chinese replica intended for cosplay or to protect against Airsoft weapons
Kontakt-5 reactive armor fitted to Russian tanks is filled with rubber strips instead of blocks of explosives
Volnorez EW jammers are made with dummy electronics that provide no discernible protection against drones
Russia’s systemic corruption at work, no wonder some Russian soldiers have decided to fight on the Ukrainian side.
Red Starfall
Iran could be considered a dry run for a Starlink based rebellion, the next stage will probably involve an increase in scale. Russia is an ‘old empire,’ which is a bad combination. Essentially it has become rotten to the core, completely corrupt like any aged empire and ripe for collapse. To illustrate: In the early 1990s, FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko was told to investigate organized crime in Russia. After performing a diligent investigation he traced all organized crime back to either the Kremlin or high ranking members of the State Duma, their version of parliament. Poor Litvinenko decided to flee the country, realizing he had been given a poison chalice, quite literally as a few years later he was poisoned with polonium-210 in his tea, at a London cafe.
Currently there are myriad dissident groups operating in Russia although they largely lack coordination. Starlink could improve communication within and between these disparate groups forging them into a potent force for change. Fortunately SpaceX announced they intend to manufacture a miniature Starlink receiver, something easily carried (or concealed) in a backpack or laptop case.
Due to the systemic corruption, any collapse in Russia will likely be complete, with breakaway provinces exerting ownership of natural resources long exploited by Moscow. We have already witnessed a similar collapse after the fall of the Berlin wall, due in part to the introduction of information technology. Between March 1983 and 1991 the CIA smuggled printing equipment into Poland, allowing Solidarity Union dissidents to print thousands of contraband books and fliers, which eventually led to the fall of the Soviet Union.
“The CIA created a program code-named HELPFUL. It smuggled the tools of a free press into Solidarity's hands. At first it was paper, ink, printing presses, Xerox copiers and fax machines. Then it was equipment for clandestine radio stations, funded in part by the AFL-CIO, which worked in harmony with the CIA. Then came sophisticated technology that let the resistance break into state-run news programs with a banner proclaiming “Solidarity Lives.” ~ The Washington Post
At the time, the fall of the Soviet Union came as a surprise to many hence we should not be surprised by any further collapse which effectively completes the process. History is littered with fallen empires that disappeared beneath the sands of time, and Russia is unlikely to be an exception.
Big Prize
The Chinese Communist Party maintain a tight grip on information, but many people operate VPNs so able to peer through the cracks to perceive the truth of their situation. Increasingly they crave a more open society, building on an undercurrent that dates back to the Tiananmen Square protests. The country devours technology so Starlink would be welcomed by many, particularly in rural areas. Interesting to note, the leader of the last Chinese revolution, Chairman Mao, was the son of a prosperous peasant from the Hunan Province…
Nuclear Deterrent
Many dictatorial regimes posses Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), which could easily appear on the black market, should the government fall. Hence it would be in the west’s interest to buy these WMDs wholesale, similar to how they paid Russia to dispose of nuclear weapons after the fall of the Soviet Union. This should progressively reduce the numbers of WMDs stockpiled around the world and discourage other autocracies from developing them. Essentially anyone who points such weapons at the west is asking to be Starlinked…
Starlink Future
SpaceX intend to setup Starlink services on the moon and Mars to assist the settlement process. They suggest the best way to govern Mars is via direct democracy, i.e. the people vote to pass laws, using personal phones wherever they are in the world, something made possible by Starlink. This implies they will dispense with all political representatives and leaders, allowing their society to operate far more efficiently and effectively, even compared to western democracies. Wherever there is power there is corruption, so by dispersing power as evenly as possible, Mars will have a real chance at an ideal culture.
In Conclusion
Discontent is commonplace in autocratic countries, because there’s no legal recourse to remove unpopular leaders. Realistically the only means available is to wait for the despot to die or perform some kind of insurrection. Our world is becoming increasingly connected thanks to Starlink, which undermines the propaganda of autocratic regimes, making them less viable with each passing year. The widespread mismanagement caused by lack of accountability in these countries means they are effectively filled with dry tinder just waiting to burst into flame. It’s too much to expect Starlink will transform despotic countries overnight but its effect will certainly be corrosive upon the regime. Add to that the quantity and quality of information gathered by Starshield and you begin to see how the case for insurrection can close.
Arguably corruption exists in all nations, to a greater or lesser degree, due to concentration of power. However, SpaceX foresee a future where Mars settlers could dispense with political representatives entirely, allowing them to shrug off this anachronistic system of government and enter a more equitable and enlightened era.