Another great piece. Love him or hate him, Elon Musk is certainly nuts. No rational person would have done this, emptying their bank account to save Tesla and SpaceX, companies he felt would certain fail. Why would we expect him to behave normally today?
Nonetheless, more often than not, Musk has turned out to be right. Right about electric vehicles and Tesla (if it weren’t for Musk, China would have complete, unfettered dominance) and resuable rockets (China too would completely dominate the launch industry).
It is important Elon needs to be seen as right. People will need enormous faith to leave Earth for Mars, faith in SpaceX to get them there and Elon's judgement that the sacrifice is worthwhile. Being a gifted businessman is only half the story, realistically that needs to be balanced with his ability to inspire.
1) "Starship can deliver 100 tons to any body in the inner solar system, something NASA can hardly ignore" = sadly those in Congress and decision makers at NASA can ignore this for various reasons.
2) They have been keeping there non-Transport non-Comm related work a secret. Tom Mueller said he moved off off propulsion to do some Mars MethLOX work, but of course he left to create Impulse Space some 5 years ago. I have heard more from Blue Origin that SpaceX on this kind of work.
3) I think we need a couple more years before we can put 100% Starship vision success in the bank. I think it is valid to plan projects around F9 and FH price points and capabilities until Starship is completely proven. Given the slowness of FAA OKs (still don't have the IFT-3 OK and it is now Feb) Starship will take years to be proven as a complete 100% F9/FH replacement for cargo. Cargo and Crew Dragon will be active through the 2020s no matter the degree of Starship (and hopefully Crew Starship success).
I believe Starship will reach orbit next flight which should occur fairly quickly as no major hangups with last launch. Once that occurs floodgates really open, even without reuse.
SpaceX are developing offshore oxygen production facilities so they still seem interested in producing their own propellant for floating spaceports moored in international waters.
Agree Falcon family should be around for some time, institutions have too much invested in it to divest this decade, though SpaceX will be keen to transition to Starship asap, because Elon....
The last launch was beautiful. I agree, I expect the next launch to reach orbit. If not the next, the one after. At that point, Starship is already much cheaper and more capable than SLS. Imagine that. Give it another year and reuse of the first stage, the price drops again. We don't need full reuse for it to change the game.
Another great piece. Love him or hate him, Elon Musk is certainly nuts. No rational person would have done this, emptying their bank account to save Tesla and SpaceX, companies he felt would certain fail. Why would we expect him to behave normally today?
Nonetheless, more often than not, Musk has turned out to be right. Right about electric vehicles and Tesla (if it weren’t for Musk, China would have complete, unfettered dominance) and resuable rockets (China too would completely dominate the launch industry).
It is important Elon needs to be seen as right. People will need enormous faith to leave Earth for Mars, faith in SpaceX to get them there and Elon's judgement that the sacrifice is worthwhile. Being a gifted businessman is only half the story, realistically that needs to be balanced with his ability to inspire.
Nice historical summary ... but ...
1) "Starship can deliver 100 tons to any body in the inner solar system, something NASA can hardly ignore" = sadly those in Congress and decision makers at NASA can ignore this for various reasons.
2) They have been keeping there non-Transport non-Comm related work a secret. Tom Mueller said he moved off off propulsion to do some Mars MethLOX work, but of course he left to create Impulse Space some 5 years ago. I have heard more from Blue Origin that SpaceX on this kind of work.
3) I think we need a couple more years before we can put 100% Starship vision success in the bank. I think it is valid to plan projects around F9 and FH price points and capabilities until Starship is completely proven. Given the slowness of FAA OKs (still don't have the IFT-3 OK and it is now Feb) Starship will take years to be proven as a complete 100% F9/FH replacement for cargo. Cargo and Crew Dragon will be active through the 2020s no matter the degree of Starship (and hopefully Crew Starship success).
I believe Starship will reach orbit next flight which should occur fairly quickly as no major hangups with last launch. Once that occurs floodgates really open, even without reuse.
https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/starship-has-extraordinary-capabilities
SpaceX are developing offshore oxygen production facilities so they still seem interested in producing their own propellant for floating spaceports moored in international waters.
Agree Falcon family should be around for some time, institutions have too much invested in it to divest this decade, though SpaceX will be keen to transition to Starship asap, because Elon....
The last launch was beautiful. I agree, I expect the next launch to reach orbit. If not the next, the one after. At that point, Starship is already much cheaper and more capable than SLS. Imagine that. Give it another year and reuse of the first stage, the price drops again. We don't need full reuse for it to change the game.