SpaceX Mars Program

Mars will be nothing like the moon

Starship development, Block 1, Block 2 and Block 3, credit SpaceX

SpaceX is deep into development of Starship, their Super Heavy Lift (SHL) launch vehicle destined for Mars. The red planet is the next logical step for space exploration because it possesses sufficient resources to build and sustain our first space settlement. However, the scope and scale of this Mars effort means it will be fundamentally different to the Apollo moon landings from start to finish.

Mars Funding

In 1989 NASA estimated a Mars Program could cost $500bn, a figure far too rich for congress to consider. However, SpaceX overcame this hurdle by self-funding Mars rocket development from 2012 to present, with NASA awarding a $2.89bn contract in 2021 to adapt Starship into a lunar lander. No doubt costs will increase as Mars approaches but SpaceX is committed to completing Starship development, with or without further federal funding.

“We’re going straight to Mars. The Moon is a distraction” ~ Elon Musk

Reportedly SpaceX revenue will exceed NASA’s budget in 2026, so funding shouldn’t be a problem. Starship is projected to cost $10bn to develop, which SpaceX can easily afford thanks to the revenue they receive from Starlink. Fortunately SpaceX development costs are comparatively low thanks to their more commercial approach…

“In NASA’s [docking mechanism] design, there were six mechanical arms, or actuators, that were used to maneuver the soft-capture ring into place. The arms were programmed to act like springs to be able to absorb the impact when the spacecraft came in contact with the station. But they were complex, required a lot of electrical power, and heavy. If the software or electronics controlling the arms failed, the whole docking could go awry. [SpaceX engineer] Mathews and his intern, Craig Western, developed a simpler design using mountain bike springs, which required no software or electronics.” ~ Washington Post

Survey Landers

During the nineteen sixties, 7 Surveyor robotic spacecraft were sent to the moon to confirm lunar landings were possible and determine consistency of the lunar surface, in preparation for the Apollo landings. Similarly SpaceX intend to send numerous autonomous Starships to Mars in 2026/28 to prove Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL). However, Mars EDL is just the start for these scout spacecraft, once there they will perform the following tasks:-

Solar power – solar arrays will be unfolded on the surface to start Mars operations.

Resource prospecting – robots will survey the landing area to determine the best sites to excavate ice from the subsoil.

Atmospheric processing – carbon dioxide will be extracted from the Martian atmosphere.

Resource utilization – the extracted carbon dioxide and water will be processed into liquid methane and oxygen propellant.

While these tasks seem a tall order for robotic missions, they constitute the bare minimum before SpaceX can send people.

Manned Missions

Starship can keep a relatively small amount of propellant in longterm storage, which it uses for course corrections and Mars landings. Hence they need to create 700 tons of propellant on the surface to allow Starship to return.

“The logical thing to do is basically outfit one of the [Cargo] ships as a propellant plant itself, and just land it on the planet as a working propellant plant. And then you just need little miner droids to go dig up ice and bring it back and unfurl the solar panels.” ~ Elon Musk/Popular Mechanics

Likely SpaceX will have to send teams of engineers to manufacture this quantity of propellant, as its unlikely robots could achieve this task on their own. NASA would be wary of sending their people without sufficient propellant to return, which implies the first landers will consist of SpaceX personnel and specialists from other Musk companies (Tesla, The Boring Company, xAI etc). Once safe return is proven, NASA should send teams of science explorers to investigate the red planet, no doubt including numerous representatives from allied space agencies.

SpaceX want to control Starship from anywhere around the spacecraft, which should be possible with tablets keyed to wifi. Alternately the crew could be fitted with Neuralink implants to allow them to access ship systems with their mind i.e. using augmented reality brain inputs and neural sensing outputs.

“The [Starship] technology will likely be similar to Dragon, but the design, usage, and goals of the onboard Starship UI [User Interface] are notably different from Dragon. The Dragon Crew Displays are three touchscreens in a small vehicle with a singular destination, supporting a small group of passengers and their cargo. Starship will fly missions to locations worldwide, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The Starship UI must be usable on devices and touchscreens of all sizes around the vehicle (common areas, living quarters, loading areas, and the bridge) and must support users with completely different jobs and skillsets.” ~ Asher Dunn – Lead Starship Software developer

No doubt NASA would be conservative about using brain implants, at least for their personnel, which suggest SpaceX will operate Mars flights as a passenger service until neural implants meet NASA approval.

Colony Construction

The initial settlement will consist of a number of Starships, distributed around a single landing zone in Arcadia Planitia.

The first longterm habitats will be constructed from in situ resources, likely consisting of underground complexes excavated by boring machines. The subsoil in the landing area should be mostly ice so these underground habitats could resemble the ice caves used by rebels from The Empire Strikes Back movie.

Underground living will likely become the norm for a number of practical reason: -

1. A few meters of ice will protect colonists from ultra violet, solar and cosmic radiation, which are elevated on the surface of Mars. Unfortunately the relatively sparse atmosphere and magnetosphere allows more space radiation to reach the surface, hence additional shielding is required for longterm habitation.

2. Tunnels and caverns are relatively easy to excavate and support due to the one thirds gravity. Once airlocks are installed, the addition of a breathable atmosphere and thermal insulation should make them highly suitable for habitation.

3. The arrival of nuclear power, either fission or fusion, will reduce the colony’s reliance on solar energy. With less cause to go to the surface, plus an abundance of available power, the colony will likely expand farther underground, until it far exceeds the surface footprint.

SpaceX want to build a Mars colony of 1 million people, which implies many more will travel to the red planet than return. In addition, millions of tons of cargo must be sent to make the colony self-sufficient, overall a huge advance in space transport.

“We need to get about a million tons to the surface of Mars to make a civilization self-sustaining… It might be 10 million tons, I hope it’s not 100 million tons, that would be a lot...” ~ Elon Musk/X

Space Logistics

Currently SpaceX intend to increase the number of Starships they build and send to Mars, until they reach 1,000 ships every Mars launch window. Phew, this would allow then to deliver 200,000 tons of payload to the colony every 26 months, consisting roughly one third passenger vehicles and two thirds cargo. However, 6 tanker flights to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) are required to refuel each ship before it can depart for Mars, which raises the launch count to 7,000 every 2 years.

SpaceX aim for144 flights this year with 3 launch facilities and a partially reusable launch vehicle. This suggests thousands of launches could be possible with the 6 planned launch facilities for Starship (4 at the Cape and 2 at Starbase Texas), assuming Starship becomes fully and rapidly reusable. Notably their Starfactories at the Cape and Starbase would have to build 1 ship per day, which seems a tall order, even with full automation.

Likely then SpaceX will fall short of the 1,000 ship target and seek alternate solutions to solve their transport problem.

Elon Musk suggests they could create an 18m diameter launch vehicle, which could quadruple the payload capacity compared to Block 4 Starship. This should reduce the total launch count to 1,750 over 2 years...but this still seems too high to be practical.

"...it could turn out that having a [Mars] cycler is a good idea to do. But I consider that to be a future potential optimization, along with having a propellant depot on the moon.” ~ Elon Musk/IAC 2016

A Mars cycler is a spacecraft which continually travels between Earth and Mars, without pausing at either planet. Around 1,000 passengers could launch on a high seating density Starship then transfer to the Mars cycler, which should have more internal volume, hence better suited to the 6-9 voyage. However, if Starship is used to launch cargo and the same Starship is used for Mars EDL, there’s little reason to dock with a Mars cycler, because inert cargo wouldn’t need the additional room.

"We're actually trying to get hold of some nuclear material [for work on nuclear propulsion] - it's hard, by the way" ~ SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell/MIT

SpaceX are interested in using nuclear fission for power generation and vehicle propulsion. Starship could be used to build a nuclear space transport in LEO, from prefabricated sections or with orbital manufacturing. Similarly passengers and cargo could be shuttled up to the transport on Starship, reducing the Mars launch count to 1,000 every 2 years, or 250 with an 18m vehicle. The transport would then depart for Mars and arrive in 1-3 months, allowing passengers to disembark on high seating density Starships launched from Mars, leaving the cargo to descend inside drop capsules, similar to the ones being developed for Project Starfall.

Seems SpaceX will need to move heaven and Earth to supply everything for Mars but they have practical paths to complete this Herculean task.

Many People One Nation

It will take the best and brightest to create a self-sustaining colony on Mars. A million people is too much to ask of the US, so they will come from all around the world. Fortunately SpaceX intend to operate floating launch platforms off the coast of most major cities, for commercial passenger transport on Starship. These floating platforms could also be used for Mars colony flights, either direct or via an Aldrin Cycler/Nuclear Transport. It would help if these passengers have a common language and culture, so expect each flight to carry people from a single region (US, Australia, Middle East, Russia, China etc).

Once colonists arrive on Mars they will become Martian i.e. citizens of a single colony that will eventually span the entire planet. The colony’s survival will be a continual challenge, too much to allow for petty squabbles over notional national boundaries. Given the extremis, colonist needs must be highly respected, likely through widespread use of direct democracy. Every major decision will be voted on by the voting public, to avoid the difficulties and delays we experience with representative government. A new world with complete freedom, no bureaucracy or mendacious leaders, perfect place to start a new chapter in human history.

In Conclusion

SpaceX has outlined our future and filling in the blanks. They say with enough money and will you can do anything, and SpaceX has a boundless supply of both.

Mars will be something else, a place where commerce is unrestricted, nations are seen as anachronistic and laws are enacted by phone. Given the novelty of this new culture, it should be mesmerizing to watch it unfold.

Chris Prophet