Link to First Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution
Vertical Integration
While the quality of people at Musk companies are their primary resource, how they are employed is also quite distinct compared to industry norms. The conventional modus operandi at most manufacturers is to design a system based on components which are easily sourced off the shelf from outside suppliers, so technically they are responsible for little more than final assembly. However, the normal practise at SpaceX and Tesla is to build as many of the components and sub-assemblies themself rather than delegate responsibility. This more integrated approach produces a plethora of commercial advantages, primarily: -
Lower Cost – by eliminating the component supply chain, the markups applied by each link in the chain are removed. This allows each component to be produced at true manufacturing cost, often a hundred times cheaper for complex assemblies like flight computers and turbopumps.
Assured Delivery – comprehensive involvement in the manufacturing process, from component fabrication through to final integration, test and deployment, allows them enormous control of the supply process, avoiding delays caused by external suppliers and transport.
Improved Quality – with most of the work being carried out inhouse, quality can be more closely monitored, overall resulting in a more reliable product.
Streamlined Design – every effort is made to make the system as simple as possible. For example: assemblies are designed to fit together directly, removing the need for external linkages (e.g. transmission shafts, wiring harness, pneumatic pipework, hydraulic hoses etc) normally required when discrete components are sourced from outside suppliers. This simplified design makes the finished product more reliable, plus reduces mass, power required and manufacturing cost.
“The best part is no part. The best process is no process. It weighs nothing. Costs nothing. Can’t go wrong.”1 ~ Elon Musk
Manufacturing Resilience – in any manufacturing process, a problem with a single part or process can easily halt production. However, the company’s comprehensive understanding of product architecture allows them to promptly amend production, minimizing the effect of any issues relating to integration, performance or supply.
“In Q1 [2021], we were able to navigate through global chip supply shortage issues in part by pivoting extremely quickly to new microcontrollers, while simultaneously developing firmware for [these] new chips made by new suppliers.”2 ~ Tesla shareholder’s letter
Such difficulties are relatively common during manufacturing, hence Musk companies’ focus on detail effectively grants them a considerable competitive advantage.
Troubleshooting – it’s common for complex products to experience teething problems after manufacture or while being prepared for operation. Again, these problems are usually resolved with minimum delay because of the company’s profound comprehension of the system, from the overall design down to material level.
Design Agility – if some way is found to improve the design, engineers can interface directly with production technicians to change the components, almost on the fly. Note this works both ways, if technicians have difficulty integrating components, they can suggest changes to engineers who can then promptly alter the design.
Accelerated Development – when new products are being developed they typically require many alterations to the original design. These build changes can be implemented promptly and precisely if carried out in-house, resulting in reduced development time, design complexity and overall cost.
“Most people in the beginning thought it was crazy to design and build the entire rocket in house, especially the engines. When we got to Kwaj [Kwajalein Atoll test site], Boeing was there doing missile defense, they basically laughed at us. I don't think they are laughing anymore. Now the European Space Agency has realized that Ariane 6 is obsolete on arrival in a few years. Reminds me of the history behind Fort Jefferson on the Dry Tortugas.”3 ~ Tim Buzza, early SpaceX launch Director
Caveat: in some instances it’s more efficient for Musk companies to use outside fabricators to supply components they design (such as for circuit boards and large castings), because they lack the specialized manufacturing facilities. Sometimes too they can find a part available off the shelf of the right price and sophistication. However, these are generally the exception to the rule, increasingly they are entering new areas of manufacturing for operational reasons because nobody manufactures the parts they need (except for basic materials, like chips, screws, wires etc).
“If you want to have something revolutionary you can’t do catalog engineering.”4 ~ Elon Musk
Extreme Localization
This insourcing process could be seen as a forerunner for how goods will be manufactured in the future, due to its exquisite efficiency. Why go to the time and expense shipping raw materials, components and finished goods twice around the world when they can be quickly produced close to the market at low cost and high quality, using a highly automated and inclusive manufacturing process. A good analogy for Star Trek aficionados might be the UFP’s replicator technology, which constructs almost anything the user wants in their own workplace or indeed home.
While SpaceX, Tesla, et al don’t currently operate replicator level technology, their highly automated and integrated approach could be seen as a significant advance in this direction. What’s more, they are continually refining these processes, because employees are encouraged to innovate at all levels and allowed considerable autonomy. Of course extremely localized production would be indispensable to any nascent space community (with good access to raw materials like Mars), considering it might take years to ship vitally needed spare parts or finished products from Earth.
Cross-pollination
“It [Starlink Broadband] could be used for Tesla, just like Tesla battery technology, I believe, we’ve leveraged for Falcon 9 and Dragon as well. So yeah the companies are, we’re not joined, but we do share technologies and capabilities, wherever we can. In fact I think The Boring Company could be the way that we house people on Mars, we’ll have to dig tunnels for folks…it makes sense.”5 ~ Gwynne Shotwell, SpaceX COO
In the commercial world, some of the techniques and technologies used by one sector can often be more advanced than other sectors, because there is little connection between the two, so limited transfer of ideas. In practise, each sector’s customers, OEMs and supply chains can be fairly insular because there’s little business reason for different sectors to interact. However, Musk companies operate across a broad range of industries, and usually employ the most advanced techniques available in each sector. Hence if any of these techniques could benefit a sister company they are promptly transferred, creating what is effectively a new technology for that particular sector. You could say Elon, and all the other personnel shared between these companies, act like bees to spread the pollen of new technology, overall producing a more efficient and fruitful operation.
“I have gone to SpaceX both Hawthorne California and Boca Chica while I was a Tesla employee. There’s heavy overlap and exchange between all the Musk companies. When you’re an employee of a Musk company you’re trusted and if your law of two feet takes you into another Musk company there’s almost no notice, it almost doesn’t matter. If your access control says SpaceX or Neuralink or Boring Company or Tesla, they’re almost fully exchangeable. You can go to the same places, have access to the same digital storage, the same data repositories the same machine learning, the same physical work areas.”6 ~ Joe Justice, Tesla Agile consultant
Day-by-day this will become increasingly important as each Musk company creates ever more advanced manufacturing techniques, processes and technologies, which were previously unheard-of for any sector.7 Because there’s effectively no barrier to spread these within the group, this could generate what’s best described as a critical mass of new technology. These would be so distinct as to place them at a different level, an echelon (if you’ll excuse the pun) above parallel industries.
“I’ve never seen anything like this [Palladium motor] before, on a high speed high power motor – and I think it’s because Tesla has invented some new physics or something.”8 ~ Sandy Munro
When Sandy Munro (of Munro & Associates) tore-down the Tesla Model 3 he discovered the printed circuit boards used were of exceptional quality for the auto-industry, more like something he’d expect to find in a fighter aircraft. Coincidentally SpaceX design and build their own motherboards to aerospace standards, hence it seems more than likely they assisted Tesla with the initial design and manufacture of these highly integrated boards, which more resembled an integrated circuit considering their extreme architectural efficiency. However, Tesla decided to take it one step further, after they designed their own neural processor chip, which allows electric vehicles to drive themselves autonomously. These low power consumption supercomputers operate Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) software, their custom-built AI program which has been trained to operate the vehicle across all road conditions. Coincidentally, SpaceX want to send a swarm of rovers to Mars to prospect for frozen water reserves in the sub-surface (to confirm ISRU propellant production is possible before sending people). Considering the difficulty of this task, limited time available before first crews arrive and thready communications with Mars, these rovers will need to be fully autonomous, so likely use a version of Tesla’s FSD software, that has been specially trained to operate in Martian terrain. Once proved on Mars, this software could then be used on Tesla’s Cybertruck, the passenger vehicle intended by SpaceX for Mars construction. Coincidentally, this vehicle uses a hard exoskeleton (instead of a conventional chassis), made from S30X, a cold hardened stainless-steel alloy developed by SpaceX for the hull of its Starship spacecraft. Hence S30X has been designed to resist micrometeors and exceptionally easy to weld due to low carbon content. From a purely practical perspective, this suggests hull plates from redundant Starships could be used to patch damaged Cybertrucks and settlement infrastructure on Mars or vice-versa. Taking all this interoperability into account, Musk companies appear to be heading towards a tech singularity in the near future.
Next Level Technology
The technology used by Musk companies is advancing by leaps and bounds, allowing them to create entirely new capabilities, which are virtually impossible to replicate by anyone including national governments. A good example of this technological divergence would be SpaceX’s lunar lander, which was awarded a NASA Human Landing System contract on April 16, 2021. Under this agreement SpaceX will adapt their Starship interplanetary spacecraft to operate on the moon, including two test landings, ideally in the 2025/6 timeframe.
The following table outlines the gulf between SpaceX and their competitors, the Blue Origin led National Team and Dynetics corporation, who unfortunately failed to secure HLS contracts from NASA during this first round of competition.
Interestingly the National Team and Dynetics sought to challenge this HLS award to SpaceX, claiming it was unfair. On balance they might be correct, Starship HLS puts their bids in the shade, both lit. and fig.
Link to next installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution-chapter-13part-3
1 https://twitter.com/erdayastronaut/status/1203840982497792005
2 https://electrek.co/2021/05/03/how-tesla-pivoted-avoid-global-chip-shortage/
3https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/m9cdrq/interested_in_the_new_spacex_book_liftoff_author/grv27et/
7 https://cleantechnica.com/2021/06/16/more-details-on-teslas-innovative-carbon-wrapped-motor/
9 https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-419783.pdf
10 https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf
12 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf
13 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf
14https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/a_sustained_lunar_presence_nspc_report4220final.pdf