SpaceX Evolution (Appendix F: Fermi Paradox)
A serialized version of this book for SubStack
Link to First Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution
It goes without saying, creating a fully autonomous machine that is trained to kill people…won’t end well; but the dangers inherent in an artificial intelligence, which far exceeds our own, are many times greater. If the military decide to create such a superintelligence, say to improve its strategic planning capabilities and coordinate strikes, the outcome could be devastating. One possible scenario is the AI might launch an all-out nuclear strike to preempt such a move by opposing forces. Likely global civilization would fall as a consequence but that could be seen as an acceptable loss to the AI. From its perspective, civilization would end anyway once the opposition realize the only logical course was to launch a preemptive strike. It could reason the important thing is to strike first in order to minimize collateral damage to the host nation, considering such conflict seems unavoidable in the long-run. AI logic…
Ironically Elon Musk has long warned of the dangers of unregulated AI but now sees its development as inevitable. Ever practical, Elon has determined if his companies lead such work, that should allow them some degree of control over the process and application.
“The robot [development] is not prompted specifically by manufacturing needs [at Tesla], we’re just obviously making the pieces that are needed for a useful humanoid robot. So we probably should make it and if we don’t someone else will…and make sure it’s safe.”1 ~ Elon Musk
Perhaps uppermost in his mind is the Fermi Paradox. This posits the galaxy should be teeming with alien civilizations by now, considering the universe has been in existence for over 13 billion years. If only a fraction of these civilizations developed some manner of interstellar transport we should be knee deep in aliens by now, which is clearly not the case – hence the paradox. This suggests any sufficiently advanced civilization will inevitably reach some dire juncture (or junctures) where it will likely fall, called the Great Filter.
“We must pass The Great Filter… That is our purpose.”2 ~ Elon Musk
As its advent approaches, AI and particularly Super AI looks to be the leading candidate for one seemingly unavoidable trial. However, assuming X.com can limit its access to the military, humanity should stand a reasonable chance of clearing this apocalyptic hurdle.
Another possibility: space will become the front line in any future superpower conflict, satellites effectively act as a force multiplier hence it seems likely they will be targeted first, given their exposure. No doubt the military on both sides will attempt to reconstitute these constellations as quickly as possible while they continue to degrade the opposition’s. This would appear a perfect recipe to create a Kessler syndrome, whereby near-Earth space would become filled with high energy orbital debris. Effectively this would mean any attempt at space travel would become impossible, because the planet would be blockaded by debris, halting any further space expansion until long after the fall of civilization. Just another reason why SpaceX are in a rush to establish a self-sustaining colony on Mars, while it’s still possible.
“We need to seize the opportunity and do it as quickly as possible. (Sigh) I’m going to be frank, civilization is feeling a little fragile these days. And like I said I’m an optimist, but I think we got to protect the downside here and try to build that city on Mars as soon as possible and secure the future of life.” 3 ~ Elon Musk
Or perhaps the evolution of life is a near statistical impossibility, like the probability of a monkey typing the complete works of Shakespeare, and we are the anomaly – the best the Universe has come up with so far. That makes us extraordinarily precious, certainly something worth preserving for perpetuity.
Champion of humanity
“I try to take a set of actions that are most likely to improve the probability that the future will be good. And obviously sometimes I make mistakes in this regard. I do whatever I think is most likely to ensure that the future is good for humanity. Those are the actions that I will take.”4 ~ Elon Musk/Business Insider
Some might question whether Elon Musk is the best choice to champion humanity, given he’s unelected – except by shareholders. They say the right person to lead is someone who doesn’t seek power, which could aptly describe Elon’s attitude.
“I rather hate it [being CEO of Tesla] and I would much prefer to spend my time on design and engineering… I have to [be CEO] or, frankly, Tesla is going to die.”5
How many politicians would work 100 hour weeks for an idealistic cause, like battling climate change or backing-up humanity on a new world? Or go through the emotional agony and grueling hardship of creating multiple startups in parallel, then steadfastly support them through growing pains, assaults by mainstream media and economic recession, much like a dutiful father?
“Doing a startup is like eating glass and staring into the abyss… If you need inspiring words [to create a startup] don’t do it.”6 ~ Elon Musk
Essentially Elon’s keen intelligence has allowed him deep insight into approaching problems (climate change, global catastrophe etc), and so decided to commit himself to alleviating these threats to humanity’s future. Given his background, training and experience, he was capable of setting up and running the relevant companies required to address these problems, hence from his perspective has a moral responsibility to do so, no matter the hardship.
One thing we can say about evolution it’s competitive, generally the strong survive by exploiting the relative weakness of others. If this model has been reproduced on other worlds, quite possibly these alien civilizations foundered when the strength of certain key individuals became too concentrated – and they lacked a moral compass.
Elon Musk appears an exception to the rule, someone who seeks to improve the human state while ensuring its long-term survival. Is he moral enough to avoid the pitfalls of the Great Filter? Considering the array of alternate candidates: populist politicians, corporate captains and pusillanimous pundits, he certainly seems our best hope by a country mile.
Given how crucial Musk might be to our future, it is probably worth a closer look at his character. Here’s a brief list of what some might regard as his salient flaws: -
Ego – Elon makes bold statements, such as he intends to make humanity a spacefaring species or transition the world economy to sustainable energy. While some might view this as delusional, SpaceX have in fact built a rocket twice as powerful as Saturn V and made significant advances with reusability – all major prerequisites for sustained settlement of Mars. In addition, Tesla’s aggressive entrance into the auto market has forced legacy companies to accelerate production of electric vehicles, as consumer demand skyrockets for this more advanced alternative to fossil fuel vehicles. More tellingly still, SpaceX and Tesla’s outrageous success has attracted considerable investment to these sectors, allowing new energy and space startups to flourish, effectively laying the foundation for the evolution Elon engendered.
Elitism – some claim Elon is attempting to create the ultimate gated community on Mars, and his companies are inherently elitist. However, Elon suffers from Asperger’s Syndrome,7 which is considered a disability, hence knows what it’s like to be discriminated against from his youth. Similarly his companies don’t hire personnel exclusively from the best colleges, instead they hire on the basis of merit, sometimes waiving the requirement for further education entirely for the right candidate.
Unjustified celebrity – considering he is engineering our next step in evolution, some celebrity would certainly appear warranted.
Honesty – Elon is an engineer first hence always endeavors to be accurate and precise in what he is saying (though some of his predictions concerning how long a project should take to complete seem based on how long it would take him to perform the work, instead of a team of engineers). This candor is shocking to many, who believe a CEO should be more circumspect and obfuscate any internal issues in order to protect the company’s image and stock price. No doubt Elon takes an engineer’s approach that the first step to solving any problem is admitting its existence, quite a refreshing perspective for a CEO.
Driven – he’s committed to combating climate change and spreading life throughout the solar system to ensure its long-term survival. Hardly damning given all he’s achieved so far and inherently moral motivation.
“But more than most other great innovators, Musk is driven by a larger sense of mission. He has a fierce urge to make life on this planet sustainable, turn humans into a spacefaring species, and assure that artificial intelligence will be beneficial rather than malign to us mortals. These goals are audacious, and he may fail. But at the moment, he has become the most important single individual in designing and deploying the innovations that will bring us a few steps closer to each of these aspirations.”8 ~ Walter Isaacson, Elon Musk biographer
Great wealth – Musk owns or controls a number of highly successful companies, and by necessity maintains a substantial shareholding in each. If, for example, he liquidated these shares he risks losing ownership and control, which could prejudice reaching the overarching goal – at least in his lifetime. Hence he is effectively locked into these shareholdings, which means essentially he is paper rich but cash poor. This doesn’t seem to bother Elon however, he never cashes his paychecks, preferring instead to keep the money in the company to assist operations. Given his driven nature, no doubt he views money is a distraction, next to all the valuable work he is currently pursuing.
“I don’t actually draw a salary or anything, my cash compensation is basically zero… I do have stock options that vest, basically with Tesla and SpaceX, but I have not really bothered to take money off the table... My money will be the first in and the last out. The success of SpaceX and Tesla was far from assured and there are many times when it looked like the companies would, and they did, they skirted bankruptcy many times but I never tried to take money off the table.”9 ~ Elon Musk
Interestingly in late 2021, after Elon became the wealthiest person in the world (with personal assets exceeding $300bn), he felt pressured by some politicians to pay more taxes. In an unexpected move he polled twitter users whether he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock to pay his tax bill, hoping to gain a consensus on the issue. In this demonstration of direct democracy, twitter voted 57.9% for this stock sale, which should net Elon up to $4bn (after state and federal taxes).10 It seems some money from these sales was used to exercise stock options, which overall increased his holdings in Tesla by ~7 million shares. While these stocks options were purchased at a discounted rate from Tesla, they still added $142m to the company’s bank account, further improving their finances. In other words Elon only uses his great wealth to increase investment in companies, instead of draining away their lifeblood.
Final Judgment
Overall these complaints against Elon appear fairly shallow and self-serving. Let’s hope his heart is big enough to see past them to humanity’s true potential – and keep on doing what he is doing.
“The reality of doing the right thing matters more than the perception of doing the right thing.”11 ~ Elon Musk
Think we should regard Fermi's Paradox not as a certainty, merely a warning. It can’t be beyond the wit of man to evade this uncertain fate, given adequate attention by the right people.
Link to next installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution-appendix-g-what
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1274614961151414273
4 https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-war-in-ukraine-2022-3
5 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-58035124
8 https://time.com/6127750/elon-musk-history-innovators/