Good piece, full of optimism. Let's not get bogged down with the unfortunate failure of Blue Origin and keep aiming for the stars. After all it's the advantage of a free market which allows competitors to push each other and themselves to achieve the goal (cheaper and faster).
I don't see any pathway for launching New Glenn again this year. Mid 2027 at best. The entire Lunar architecture is now riding on SpaceX, for now, which relies on proving rapid reuse and cryogenic refeuling.
While I'm excited for the future and hopeful that we will see a manned Lunar landing in 2028, the odds are now against NASA. There is just too much work to do on Starship, too many unknowns.
They will get there, but maybe not as quickly as we would like.
SpaceX is ramping production of Starship which should help with testing. Landing accuracy is good so they'll attempt to recover the ship on Flight 14, late this year, Time pressure tends to focus minds and effort at SpaceX.
Good piece, full of optimism. Let's not get bogged down with the unfortunate failure of Blue Origin and keep aiming for the stars. After all it's the advantage of a free market which allows competitors to push each other and themselves to achieve the goal (cheaper and faster).
I don't see any pathway for launching New Glenn again this year. Mid 2027 at best. The entire Lunar architecture is now riding on SpaceX, for now, which relies on proving rapid reuse and cryogenic refeuling.
While I'm excited for the future and hopeful that we will see a manned Lunar landing in 2028, the odds are now against NASA. There is just too much work to do on Starship, too many unknowns.
They will get there, but maybe not as quickly as we would like.
SpaceX is ramping production of Starship which should help with testing. Landing accuracy is good so they'll attempt to recover the ship on Flight 14, late this year, Time pressure tends to focus minds and effort at SpaceX.