How SpaceX will finance Mars
How SpaceX will finance Mars
SpaceX has inverted space development
Pundits, scientists and armchair experts have long disparaged Elon Musk’s vision of Mars, often emphasizing the lack of business case for such an enterprise. However, Elon Musk has consistently found creative ways to fund his vision for sustainable transport and energy, so he definitely has a plan for SpaceX, his magnum opus. The company was established in 2002 with the goal to reach Mars in iterative steps, starting with their first launch vehicle, Falcon 1. This was quite an unusual approach, because normally the government funds new vehicle development, being the primary customer, but SpaceX decided to self finance ‘for the good of Mars.’ Fortunately the success of Falcon 1 became their passport to NASA, who helped fund the next iteration, Falcon 9, an order of magnitude more powerful vehicle. Then SpaceX went on to develop Starship which proved so attractive to NASA they awarded $4 billion to use it as a Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis moon program.
In January 2015 SpaceX surprisingly announced they would diversify into communications, and have launched 6,000+ Starlink satellites, capable of supplying broadband anywhere in the world. From the outset they stated a similar system would be required for Mars, which lacks communication infrastructure, hence Starlink was a strategic move as well as commercial. Generously they offered it to Ukraine, after Russia crippled their communications, which proved Starlink’s unrivaled capability under wartime conditions. Again the US government was impressed with this capability and has steadily increased their use of the Starlink system, particularly the military.
“The Defense Department is increasing its projected spending on low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite internet services more than tenfold[ [to $13bn], responding to surging demand from across the military.” ~ Spacenews.com
In fact the NRO were so impressed they asked SpaceX to develop Starshield, their own version of Starlink for Earth surveillance.
“The [Starshield] network is being built by SpaceX's Starshield business unit under a $1.8 billion contract signed in 2021 with the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), an intelligence agency that manages spy satellites,” ~ Reuters
All told, the commercial applications for Starlink should generate hundreds of billions p.a. plus a similar amount from world governments as they become increasingly dependent on its unique capabilities (i.e. high speed, low latency, ubiquitous connection etc). How much the NRO will pay for Starshield is relatively opaque, but it could easily run to tens of billions once they finish building out the constellation.
Overall we see a pattern emerge, technologies that build towards Mars are then sold on to willing commercial customers and friendly governments. Effectively SpaceX has inverted the normal development model, i.e. government pays to pioneer technology, which then goes on to find commercial applications.
Starship Applications
“When decisions are being made, people will often bring it up: ‘is this going to work for the Mars mission?’ That question is always considered when decisions are being made; Mars doesn’t always win, but that concern is always examined.” ~ Robert Rose, former Director of Flight Software at SpaceX/LWN.net
It seems engineers at SpaceX keep Mars in mind whenever they create new technologies, so it’s safe to say Elon Musk (who has overall responsibility for finance) plans to use Starship to balance the books for Mars. Again SpaceX decided to develop a Mars vehicle unilaterally, without waiting for government approval or funding, and all Starship tests so far have been performed under a commercial banner.
Important to note, a Mars colony ship needs to operate for up to a year without resupply, which makes it highly attractive to the military. They would love to patrol geostationary orbit to protect their strategic satellites, and provide some facility for maintenance and repair. Hence when Starship proves its reliability for Mars missions, it will become a shoo-in for the US Space Force (USSF). Currently they plan to use it for point-to-point transport (P2P), to familiarize themselves with the system before progressing to long duration space missions. However, P2P offers a unique capability on its own, hence something they will likely want to maintain, providing billions more to the Mars program.
Full Moon
NASA want a sustained presence on the moon and SpaceX intend to go one step further and build a commercial moonbase. This will require thousands of tons of cargo and hundreds of people to be transported to the moon in the span of a few years. Fortunately Starship can carry everything needed, assuming methalox propellant can be synthesized from raw materials found in lunar polar craters. SpaceX has developed the technology for methalox production on Mars, which could easily be adapted for the moon, because the same raw materials are available in both locations i.e. carbon dioxide and water. Lunar propellant production alone could turn into a lucrative business, particularly as the moon becomes a hub for commercial activity.
Of course China plan to build their own moonbase and create propellant at the lunar South Pole, no doubt competing for lunar resources. If the moon becomes a point of contention, the USSF will likely station guardians there to protect US interests, with transport provided by Starship and communications via a lunar version of Starlink. In addition, USSF will need to patrol cislunar space with Starship, to ensure freedom of navigation. Currently the US Navy budget is ~ £200bn, if SpaceX receive a fraction of this figure from the USSF...it would go a long way towards Mars.
Full Mars
“The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens. These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.” ~ Elon Musk/X
As soon as SpaceX attain this capability, many space agencies will jump onboard, with NASA as the anchor customer. SpaceX intend to create a city of a million people on Mars, hence will operate commercial flights for people to emigrate en masse. Apparently Elon Musk will be an early emigre, because he anticipates many issues establishing such a large settlement and likes to troubleshoot any problems personally. Money follows Musk, at least going by the sky-high value of his companies, so we can expect a great deal of commercial interest in Mars if Elon is personally invested. He knows over-regulation is antithetical to successful enterprise, so expect a regulation light approach to Mars, making it extremely business friendly. A local economy should quickly evolve to support the ever expanding population, hence settlement building will increasingly be financed by the Mars economy itself, until it eventually becomes self-sustaining.
In Conclusion
Building a Mars colony vehicle will costs billions but a substantial settlement on Mars will require trillions. Fortunately SpaceX’s commercial applications should generate up to a $trillion p.a. in revenue, at medium to high margins. This should be sufficient to jump-start Mars settlement until its local economy is ready to take over.
By setting up companies to build essential Mars technologies, Elon Musk also created the financial opportunities to pay for his grand enterprise. Their success was made possible by a few good people, we can only imagine what’s possible with a million such on Mars...
Much of the renewable energy industry (I.E. effective solar and light, robust batteries) can at least be partially to NASA. When you pick a goal like getting to the moon building a largely self-sustaining space station, or setting up a colony on Mars, the sheer quantity of problems that need to be solved will probably have 2nd order effects of solving practical real world problems that directly effect people’s lives.
I think NASA’s spinoff technologies are only a small portion of the real technological improvement space development has created. Especially if you consider 2nd order effects (problems that could only have been solved once a previous problem without much commercial application was solved at NASA) and the increased expertise that is then applied to other industries.
https://spinoff.nasa.gov