Link to First Installment: https://chrisprophet.substack.com/p/spacex-evolution
CHAPTER 15: EARTH UNITED
In the early years of this millennia, the world’s aerospace and car companies failed to react to the threat posed to their business by model Musk industries. Initially they underestimated how effective these highly integrated companies would become, then later found themselves incapable of reaching a similar level of efficiency, due to architectural deficiencies.
Similarly, Earth nations will probably realize too late how effectively these new worlds have harnessed the spirit of innovation and liberal governance. The tremendous influence wielded by other worlds, filled with legions of top echelon engineers, entrepreneurs and investors will simply be overwhelming. Our nations are becoming increasingly bound by bureaucracy, and security, which inherently hampers innovation and the entrepreneurial spirit, so we are effectively moving in the opposite direction to these freedom loving new worlds, as they emerge.
“Generally government should, I think, try to get out of the way and not impede progress. I think there’s a general problem, not just in the US, but in most countries where the rules and regulations keep increasing every year. Rules and regulations are immortal they don’t die, occasionally you see some law with a sunset provision, but really otherwise the vast majority of rules and regulations live forever. And so if more rules and regulations are applied every year and they just keep growing and growing eventually it just takes longer and longer, and it’s harder to do things, and there’s not really an effective garbage collection system for removing rules and regulations. And so gradually this hardens the arteries of civilization where you are able to do less and less over time. So I think government should be really trying hard to get rid of rules and regulations that perhaps had some merit at some point but don’t have merit currently. But there’s very little effort in this direction. This is a big problem.”1 ~ Elon Musk/Wall Street Journal interview
No doubt at some juncture our leaders will realize maintaining adversarial postures to other nations is pointless when the real competition originates from other worlds and the SpaceX superstate. The only way to compete with such momentous power blocks for resources and talent would be concertedly, through a unity of nations far deeper than offered by contemporary international institutions like the United Nations. Realistically this might address political concerns but hardly stop the cultural and technological decline. In fact the arrival of new nations, such as floating free cities, might offer the best hope to maintain some momentum for meaningful progress here on Earth.
Cultural decline might be viewed as anathema by many, yet the course set is clear. For over a century the United States was held as a beacon of democracy, hope and freedom by many, until events of recent years. Even in fiction it couldn’t have been imagined a standing president of the United States would galvanize a mob to march on the US Capitol, to avoid leaving office at the end of his term. Or a ‘climate conscious’ president, who is so swayed by union contributions, would actively endorse a $4,500 subsidy for hybrid cars made by legacy companies – and effectively disincent sales of clean electric vehicles by emerging EV companies as they struggle to achieve efficiencies of scale...2 Unfortunately this kind of reversal is hardly unprecedented, during the founding years of Rome its senators would willingly die for an ideal, yet only a few centuries later these patricians would let anyone die to keep their deal, or cut of the inordinate Roman riches…
In addition to this cultural decline, information technology is proving highly corrosive to systems of government around the world. Where previously dissent could be limited by controlling the press and broadcast media, now all manner of truths can be disseminated via social media and popular forums, which are then believed by millions. Reportedly during the Arab Spring uprising, Libyan authorities secretly topped up mobile phones in order to better monitor communications between insurgents; something which ultimately proved unwise as they were used to organize the ensuing revolt. And it is not just despotic regimes who are threatened by this ‘new truth,’ all the shortcomings of representation government now lie exposed, resulting in increasing polarization and extremism. We can only imagine the destabilizing effects this will have on national governments and power blocks, potentially threatening to turn technological nations into virtual police states. Unfortunately this sort of decline seems almost inevitable, likely exporting the best and brightest young liberals to other worlds will only accelerate the process.
Coupled to this is climate change, which threatens to swamp our coastal cities and render large tracts uninhabitable. Taking the long-view, climate change has been ongoing since the ice age, although human action has no doubt accelerated the process. So even assuming we manage to correct our affect on climate change, it’s still likely to happen, just over a slightly longer timeframe. This could prove devastating to civilization, resulting in massive upheaval and conflict – unparalleled since the dark ages.
While this situation appears bleak, the real lesson here is humanity needs a fresh start – of the sort offered by SpaceX on new worlds.
“Most likely the form of government on Mars would be a direct democracy, not representative. So it would be people voting directly on issues. And I think that's probably better, because the potential for corruption is substantially diminished in a direct versus a representative democracy.”3 ~ Elon Musk/Code Conference 2016
No doubt when the benefits are clear for these new endeavors, such as encouraging innovation, direct democracy and social responsibility, there may well be a sea change in Earth’s establishments, allowing a cultural renaissance. This will require some depth of character, bravery and foresight from our leaders – hence in no way certain. More likely Earth would become subjugated by the influence and technology delivered by the SpaceX superstate, relegated to become little more than a curiosity as the origin place for far flung humanity. These genetically and technologically raised individuals will no doubt view Earth as quite quaint and an interesting place to visit, to marvel at how we used to live, an eternal reminder of the importance of cultural progress.
2 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/11/11/manchin-objects-federal-tax-credit-union-made-electric-vehicles-provision-bidens-social-spending-package/
Musk is right about the buildup of rules over time. It is important that governments 1) leverage the collective wisdom of its people to the maximum extent possible and 2) have a mechanism for course correction.
As I have written at Risk & Progress many times, it should be easy to challenge rules and regulations when they do not function as intended.