Why SpaceX Win
Our AI future is reflected in SpaceX present
“Over the past two decades, SpaceX has driven the cost of reaching low Earth orbit from roughly $16,000/kg down to under $1,200/kg on Falcon 9 (reused), and now targeting sub-$200/kg on Starship.” ~ Jarsy/X
For millennia the sky was an impossible impassible barrier, now SpaceX makes space flight seem almost mundane. People point to reusability as the reason for their success, but this is a gross oversimplification; like describing the entirety of the ocean as ‘wet.’ The company’s culture is the real reason for their unrivaled progress, and arguably a model for how to succeed in an increasingly AI invested world.
Right Stuff
SpaceX was founded by people passionate about space, talented and capable, who recruited more of the same. Many were rejected who put their own interests ahead of the company, which keeps the focus laser sharp on the corporate mission. This allows small teams of cooperative people to blitz technical challenges, each day building on the success of the last.
Vertical Integration
The company pushes its highly talented workforce to come up with innovative solutions to technical challenges. Hence it’s often quicker and cheaper for them to make new parts themselves than negotiate price and delivery with a suitable supplier, which results in incredible cost savings. For example: Starlink ground terminals use phased array antennas which normally cost thousands of dollars but SpaceX produces them so cheaply they can give them to subscribers for free.
Iteration Iteration
“A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.” ~ proverb
SpaceX takes a similar approach to software companies when developing new systems. They quickly assemble a minimum viability product, find how it fails, then iterate as quickly as possible. For example, SpaceX launched Falcon 1 only 4 years after the company was founded, going from no rocket building experience to first test flight at an incredible pace. Falcon 1 was small, only capable of lifting a couple of hundred kilos to orbit, but commercially viable. Essentially SpaceX philosophy is to break things down into the smallest bites possible then consume them as quickly as possible. So far a myriad of small steps have allowed them to advance to the technical height of Starship, the world’s first fully reusable launch vehicle, capable of lifting more than 200 tons.
Fearless Advance
Most companies halt development after they achieve a working rocket, because even a minor change could cause a Rapid Unplanned Disassembly (RUD). Conversely SpaceX make continuous changes to the design, despite the occasional RUD, because these failures indicate how to improve the existing system or signpost the next step in its evolution. To illustrate: Starship Version 3 incorporates hundreds of changes from Version 2 – that’s fearless...
Commercial Horizon
Legacy aerospace companies build bespoke launch vehicles for governments, who have exceptionally deep pockets, which led to extraordinary prices. For example, the part reusable Space Shuttle cost ~$60,000 per kilo of payload, compared to $1,200 per kilo for a part reusable Falcon 9. This prior cost burden limited the commercial horizon to a handful of satellites, when the potential for space is far wider. SpaceX broke the mold by taking a more commercial approach, i.e. find the best way to deliver payload at the lowest cost. Then they demonstrated what’s possible through quickly constructing Starlink, a 10,000 satellite mega-constellation capable of delivering broadband anywhere on Earth. Now they are helping other companies achieve their space goals, some far beyond Earth orbit.
All-in Investment
SpaceX is all-in pursuing their goals, developing Starlink and Starship in parallel was cripplingly expensive for the company. However, they value progress above profit, which gives them an enormous advantage over legacy launch companies. So far SpaceX spent $15bn on Starship development, and rapidly ramping investment. Once complete Starship will allow them to replicate their success with Starlink anywhere in the inner solar system.
Overall betting the company shows management commitment and focuses the minds and effort of their highly invested workforce.
Everyone Wins
Following each SpaceX success their stock increased in leaps and bounds. This directly motivates SpaceXers to succeed, because they receive vested shares by way of a bonus. Essentially interns can turn into millionaires in less than a decade, with enough money and experience to start their own companies. Many of these startups are space related, which means more launch business for SpaceX, who currently handle ~99% of the payload for the western world.
This is the Way
In the near future companies will be founded by a few talented people, who are passionate about pursuing a commercial goal. Their first step is to recruit teams of specialist AI agents from various sources and let them develop the product. AI androids will then build the plant, handle production and distribution. These virtual companies will have even greater focus than SpaceX and capable of faster advances. Probably this new model for development will be demonstrated first at SpaceX, who constantly strive to improve their performance; no wonder they snapped up xAI,
There is No Try
Hyperscalers promise to invest hundreds of billions in AI but SpaceXAI is the only company who has built a coherent gigawatt of compute, at their Colossus 2 facility. When hyperscalers catch up, SpaceXAI will be deploying a gigawatt of compute in space, an order of magnitude more difficult to develop. Strategy wins over tactics, and SpaceX’s strategic vision is peerless.
Sunlit Uplands
“We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond.” ~ SpaceX/SpaceNews.com
Now Starship is transitioning into service, companies will come from all around the world to use it. Space habitat and observatory builders, Moon and asteroid prospectors, emigrants to new worlds and science pioneers. No doubt Space Force will take strides to keep up, and secure strategic interests. Inspiration, it seems, is infectious, and SpaceX has proved anything is possible.
In Conclusion
SpaceX started a snowball rolling which will eventually circle the world. Expect prodigious advances in the years ahead, starting in the technology sector. SpaceXers are the real heroes, their sacrifice has made anything and everything possible.