SpaceX Starship Success
Starship issues are caused by a well understood problem
Following Starship Flight 8 on March 6, SpaceX are barreling towards Flight 9, the third flight test of their Version 2 Starship. Ship 35 and Booster 16 have completed cryogenic testing and returned to the Mega Bay, to receive their Raptor 2 engines. Interestingly Booster 16 could be sidelined as it’s possible Booster 14 will be reused for Flight 9. Reportedly this next flight will occur in early to mid April, despite problems on the previous two test flights.
On Flight 7 and Flight 8, both ships experienced an engine bay fire which resulted in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD). Following the second flight the company posted: -
“With a test like this, success comes from what we learn, and today’s flight will help us improve Starship’s reliability. We will conduct a thorough investigation, in coordination with the FAA, and implement corrective actions to make improvements on future Starship flight tests.” ~ SpaceX/X
Construction is fast and continuous at Starbase, meaning the ship used on Flight 8 was too advanced to fully rectify the problem before it was ready to fly. Some changes were made to mitigate the problem, which only occurs under flight conditions, hence they proceeded with the flight to gauge the effects. If nothing else their engineers gained a good deal more data, and now better armed to address the root cause.
Fault Rectification
Interestingly the fault they discovered on Starship appears similar to a problem encountered on the Saturn V moon rocket. Launch vehicles have a natural frequency of vibration, and on Apollo 6 this coincided with the resonant frequency of pipework on the upper stage, causing it to rupture. For later flights they managed to mitigate the problem by dampening the booster’s oxygen propellant lines to reduce oscillations.
Similarly Starship’s vacuum engines have separate methane propellant lines that resonate at the ship’s operating frequency. This likely caused them to rupture, and release propellant into the hot engine bay resulting in an uncontrolled fire. Hopefully applying some dampening to these lines should resolve the issue, otherwise they can revert to the single methane manifold used on Starship Version 1.
“Prior to the end of the ascent burn, an energetic event in the aft portion of Starship resulted in the loss of several Raptor engines.” ~ SpaceX
On Flight 8 one of the Raptor Vacuum engines appears to have suffered an ‘energetic event’ which shut down the adjacent Sea Level engines. Normally if a turbopump or combustion chamber fails any fragmentation is absorbed by blast shielding that surrounds the engine. However, the demise of the Raptor Vac engine was not adequately contained, which suggests they will also upgrade Starship’s engine shielding.
Flight 9 Success
On balance Flight 9 will likely succeed for a number of reasons: -
1. SpaceX has an orgy of data on the resonance effect and sufficient time to forensically investigate the problem.
2. They have some exceptionally talented and experienced engineers who are more than capable of devising a solution.
3. Elon Musk prioritizes the biggest bottlenecks to reaching Mars and personally assists in their resolution. Currently he’s not at Starbase Tx, which demonstrates his confidence in the engineer’s proposed solution.
In addition, Ship 35 has catch points fitted to determine how they handle reentry, and if it survives they plan to catch the ship on Flight 10 with the mechazilla chopsticks. Recovering both stages should allow them to proceed to full reuse, something Elon suggests is on track for early 2026.
“SpaceX is tracking to a Starship launch rate of once a week in ~12 months. That will yield ~100 tons to Starlink orbit with full reusability.” ~ Elon Musk
Where We Go Next
Once SpaceX master full reusability, they can send thousands of tons of propellant to orbit in parallel with Starlink missions. This sea of propellant will allow Starship to go much farther...
“Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus [android]. If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.” ~ Elon Musk
While Elon has cooled towards the moon, no doubt SpaceX will continue to support NASA missions through its Artemis Program contract. Power of reusability, as it allows them to pursue multiple goals simultaneously at relatively low cost. This is how space should be developed, meaningful programs pursued rapidly and in parallel, because that provides the best chance of overall success.
What to Expect
We are standing on the threshold of a new space era thanks to SpaceX and Starship. Here’s a few highlights for what to expect: -
Mars Missions – work is already underway to produce the next version Starship, fitted with more powerful Raptor 3 engines, currently under test at McGregor Tx. Starship version 3 is primarily designed for Mars and capable of lifting 200+ tons of payload, an important prerequisite for these exceptionally long missions. Everything necessary to survive 2+ years must be carried on a single spacecraft, in case the crew are unable to access the cargo Starships sent ahead to Mars. Expect first flight of this extraordinary spacecraft later this year, and if successful, an unmanned Mars mission should launch in October-December 2026.
Moon Missions – the Human Landing System (HLS) used for Artemis Moon landings is also based on the more capable Version 3 Ship, although modified to suit the lunar environment. For example: the moon has no atmosphere to slow the vehicle’s descent, so HLS must use its engines for descent through to landing, hence carry additional propellant. Expect HLS to perform an autonomous moon landing in early 2026, with the crewed landing to follow by mid-2027.
Rocket Cargo – the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is constructing 2 landing pads on Johnston Island in the Pacific to test rocket cargo delivery. These tests will prove rockets can land with pinpoint accuracy, delivering significant materiel and medical supplies anywhere in the world. AFRL has contracted SpaceX to develop rocket cargo, likely using Starship due to its low cost and unparalleled capability. Expect Rocket Cargo flights to commence by the end of this year, assuming construction work is complete at Johnston.
Starlink V3 – larger and more powerful satellites will be launched on Starship, called Starlink V3. These will reduce connection latency to 5 milliseconds and supply gigabit speeds, once the Starlink constellation is fully upgraded. Expect the first Starlink V3 satellites to launch on Flight 10, allowing an upgraded service to start by the end of 2026.
In Conclusion
SpaceX has too much riding on Starship for Flight 9 to fail. They understand the issue from the previous flights and have mitigation measures in place. Expect their internal investigation to close by the end of the month, followed by the FAA announcing their approval of Flight 9.
Consequently Flight 10 should be a real milestone, with both booster and ship returned to the launch site, ready for reuse. No exaggeration, this will open the doors to the future.