SpaceX Space Station

Who you gonna call (when primes ghost you)

In 2021 SpaceX made a bid for a Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) contract, a program set up by NASA to support private space station development. Unfortunately their bid wasn’t accepted but they didn’t give up, and have since landed a Space Act Agreement (SAA) to collaborate with NASA on a Starship based space station.

“SpaceX is collaborating with NASA on an integrated low Earth orbit architecture to provide a growing portfolio of technology with near-term Dragon evolution and concurrent Starship development. This architecture includes Starship as a transportation and in-space low-Earth orbit destination element supported by Super Heavy, Dragon, and Starlink, and constituent capabilities including crew and cargo transportation, communications, and operational and ground support.” ~ NASA

SpaceX’s dedication appears to be paying off, as it now seems almost inevitable they will build and operate their own space station due to a confluence of circumstances.

Good Intentions

In NASA’s International Space Station (ISS) transition report, they propose the station should be decommissioned in 2028-30, followed by its deorbit in 2031, then rely on private enterprise to provide a suitable commercial alternative. However, the commercial groups selected for NASA’s CLD program seem unlikely to meet this operational deadline for a variety of reasons. For example, Blue Origin’s Orbital Reef project appears to be on the back burner and Northrup Grumman has ceased work on their unnamed station altogether. This leaves Nanorack’s Starlab Station as the last man standing, although the work is slow going due to a partner reshuffle, which prompted a change in architecture from a large inflatable habitat to rigid metallic module.

The CLD program was designed to stimulate space station development without NASA paying the majority cost for the new station, which is presumably the sticking point for these prime contractors. For reference, it took at least $150bn to build the ISS over a 22 year period, hence a tall order to expect any commercial replacement given the relatively short timeframe and funds available.

NASA has another agreement with Axiom space to supply a series of add-on modules for the ISS, which could be separated to become a free-flying space station, assuming they secure adequate private finance. However, no launches have been booked so far, despite this being a long lead item...suggesting there could easily be a space station gap after 2030.

Starship Station

Starship space station variants ~ credit SpaceXvision

Fortunately SpaceX have been beavering away in the background building Starship, a cathedral like spacecraft with similar pressurized volume to the ISS (1,000 cubic meters). Considering SpaceX are making Starships at a prodigious rate (currently 6 in production or awaiting launch), they could build a space station variant at relatively short notice.

“Given it’s similar volume to the [International] Space Station you could do what you are doing on the Space Station on a Starship if you want. There’s no limit to how long it can stay up there, you need solar panels, battery and thrusters to maintain orbit.” ~ Elon/IAC 2023

SpaceX have already begun launching Starship, which makes them uniquely placed to operate a commercial space station within NASA’s projected budget.

“The [ISS Transition] report estimates that NASA will spend about $1 billion a year on CLD services by 2033.” ~ SpaceNews.com

Currently NASA pay $1.8bn per year to supply the ISS with cargo and crew, which should make SpaceX highly motivated to operate their own station, to ensure this business continues after the ISS is fully decommissioned.

Starship Station Delivery

While 2030 appears the delivery deadline for any new space station, NASA might require a backup at fairly short notice because the future is far from certain. The ISS isn’t getting any younger and there are many factors affecting its long-term survival.

Certainly SpaceX should aim to deploy their own station well in advance of the 2030 deadline, allowing plenty of time to gain the necessary experience operating their own space station before hosting NASA astronauts. Realistically NASA will probably want to continue with existing efforts and engage SpaceX to provide a Starship Station as an interim measure, until they can build something better.

Starship Station Business

According to Mars Society founder Robert Zubrin, ”orbital research labs” are the next big space app, after satellite communications. All manner of new products can be researched and manufactured in microgravity, such as innovative drugs, virtually lossless fiber cables, even complete human organs ready for transplant. Realistically we have barely begun to tap the possibilities, with many more applications likely to emerge when a commercial microgravity facility becomes available.

Hybrid Station

Once the business case is proven for commercial space stations, it should be possible to deploy a more advanced station with the aid of Starship. Likely this will be a hybrid station, consisting of a rotating section to provide centrifugal gravity, coupled to a stationary section for microgravity manufacturing and research, equipped with a docking facility for transferring passengers and cargo. Centrifugal gravity will be essential for maintaining the health of resident workers and should also allow mass space tourism (Starship could carry 1,000 passengers at a time if furnished with high density seating). Professional astronauts find the effects from long-term exposure to microgravity challenging, e.g. bone porosis, intracranial pressure and general deconditioning, which suggests normal tourists could find these effects quite overwhelming. Hence for space tourism to flourish they will need to provide a haven of centrifugal gravity and, if nothing else, save these innocent tourists from the horror of microgravity toilets...

In Conclusion

Due to a combination of factors i.e: NASA’s urgent demand for a commercial space station, the inability to fund this project by primary contractors, and salience of Starship development, it seems increasingly likely SpaceX will diversify into the space station business. Arguably NASA has already begun to move in this direction following their Space Act Agreement to build a Starship Station supported by Dragon transport and Starlink communications. Currently the company has more pressing priorities for Starship development, e.g. producing a propellant tanker, orbital propellant depot and Human Landing System version for the Artemis program, not to mention their own cargo variant for deploying Starlink satellites. Realistically they should have time to build a space station variant in the 2025-30 timeframe, which would allow NASA to maintain space station research, at considerable cost saving compared to the ISS. However, this would not be pure altruism on SpaceX’s part, no doubt this arrangement could be quite beneficial to the company. The ability to supply suitable space transport to their own station at relatively short notice will become increasingly lucrative due to the demand spike as the 2030 deadline approaches. Then a profitable space station could open the flood gates for a sustainable space economy.

Chris Prophet