SpaceX Rescue Mission
SpaceX diversify into astronaut recovery
On June 6, Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft managed to dock with the International Space Station (ISS) with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore onboard. This Crew Flight Test (CFT) mission suffered multiple system failures such as helium leaks and overheated thrusters which resulted in reduced performance, suggesting Suni and Butch could count themselves lucky to have arrived. These problems are far from isolated as Starliner has led a troubled life from its inception, mainly due to poor execution by Boeing.
Past aside, NASA now faces a tough decision: return their astronauts on Starliner and risk Loss of Crew (LOC), or use SpaceX’s proven Dragon spacecraft as a stand-in rescue vehicle. On the face of it this appears an easy decision for NASA but the apparent simplicity masks nuance within nuance…
Trust the plan
“Our prime option is to complete the mission, There are a lot of good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home on Starliner. Starliner was designed, as a spacecraft, to have the crew in the cockpit." Steve Stich, NASA Commercial Crew Program Manager
From a technical standpoint, it’s important to complete the mission with astronauts onboard, to determine all of Starliner’s strengths and weaknesses. Their post flight debrief could prove invaluable for fixing all of Starliner’s problems, considering Suni and Butch are both seasoned astronauts. In addition, a successful mission would be great optics for NASA and assist their budget requests to congress. Smiling astronauts, NASA looks great and congress rewards them for job well done, what’s not to like in this ideal scenario.
Political fallout
No doubt the White House has instructed all agencies to avoid creating any political issues in the run-up to the November elections. If NASA suffers a LOC, after clear signs of problems with Starliner, it would be naive to believe it wouldn’t be used against the current administration. More importantly, Vice President Kamala Harris chairs the National Space Council (NSC), which might make her appear responsible... Boeing are prominent members of the NSC User’s Advisory Group and Harris is certainly aware of the situation: -
“Starliner is on its way — congratulations to the team. Today’s launch marks an important milestone for the future of human spaceflight. Butch and Suni, you represent America’s leadership into the cosmos and make us proud. Safe travels on your mission.” ~ VP Harris
Safe to say, any political fallout would be unwelcome by VP Harris, as she attempts to solidify her standing to become the next US President.
Problems are opportunities in disguise
NASA has launched astronauts for sixty years yet lack the facility to bring them home safely, should their spacecraft fail. For example, Space Shuttle Columbia suffered serious damage to its wing during launch, something NASA discovered when they analyzed slow-motion footage of the launch. However, they had little alternative except to return the crew on the damaged shuttle because they lacked any backup vehicle to perform a prompt rescue.
Now things have changed, thanks to SpaceX’s large stable of reusable launch vehicles and spacecraft. Falcon 9 flies every few days and currently they have 4 Crew Dragon spacecraft in operation, with a fifth entering service in February 2025. Theoretically this could allow SpaceX to launch a rescue mission to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at relatively short notice, if a readied spacecraft was kept on standby. This would virtually eliminate the sort of life and death decision currently faced by NASA, making space travel far safer. Historically there has been little need for a rescue service but soon there will be multiple commercial space stations in LEO, and all manner of passenger spacecraft. Many commercial passengers will be less robust than NASA astronauts and could need emergency evacuation, something easily managed on Crew Dragon which is fully automated from lift-off to touch down. Hence as the space sector continues to grow a rescue service might become an indispensable asset for NASA, considering they have overall responsibility for space development.
Signs and portents
Some important signs suggest NASA is preparing to return the Starliner crew on Dragon: -
Emergency response study – NASA has awarded $266,678 to SpaceX to perform a “Special Study for Emergency Response” and reportedly SpaceX are investigating ways to return the 2 stranded astronauts on Crew Dragon.
Readying rescue dragon – NASA has pushed back the Crew 9 launch date from August 18 to September 24. This should provide sufficient time to modify the mission, effectively allowing Crew Dragon to become a rescue vehicle.
Starliner software – Steve Stich confirmed Starliner normally operates with a crew onboard, hence a significant software update is required to allow it to return autonomously. Reportedly it will take Boeing at least a month to develop this new software and upload it to the spacecraft.
Assuming all measures are in place, NASA should be in a position to launch a rescue mission by the end of September.
SpaceX to the rescue
“NASA's Steve Stich confirms they have set up the Crew-9 Dragon to have the flexibility to launch with 2 astronauts, and return with 4 (Starliner's Butch and Suni) in Feb 2025. SpaceX suits are ready, seats are ready, however it has not been ‘formally’ enabled yet. They are setting up contingencies for multiple scenarios.” ~ NASASpaceflight
If NASA decide to pull their astronauts from Starliner, they have several options available with Crew Dragon: -
Skeleton crew – the Crew 9 mission would normally carry 4 astronauts to the ISS but Dragon flies autonomously so they could easily reduce the crew to 2. The free seats could then be used to return the Starliner astronauts after the Crew 9 mission ends in Spring 2025. This option would require minimum changes to the Dragon spacecraft, which should certainly appeal to NASA from a safety and cost perspective. SpaceX would need to send new spacesuits for Suni and Butch because their Boeing suits are incompatible with Dragon systems. In addition, SpaceX must install new seat liners for Suni and Butch, because each seat is perfectly molded to the astronaut, to protect them from g-forces and buffeting during launch and landing.
Seat upgrade – the Crew 9 and Crew 10 vehicles could be fitted with an extra jump seat to allow one of the Starliner astronauts to return after each crew mission. These jump seats would take the place of the cargo bags normally carried on these spacecraft. This would require Dragon to be recertified to carry 5 astronauts which entails a lot of study and paperwork to ensure operational safety. This option allows NASA to send all the intended astronauts on Crew 9 and 10, ensuring little disruption to station operation.
Multi-seat upgrade – SpaceX could go all in and fit 2 jump seats on Crew 9, allowing Suni and Butch to return as they departed i.e. together. This would likely mean no cargo bags could be carried on this flight, although they could be returned on the CRS-31 cargo flight due to launch in October. Overall this option appears more risky for NASA, currently Dragon is certified to carry 4 astronauts so increasing the crew by 2 would add significant mass. However, Dragon was originally designed to carry 7 crew, so 6 is definitely within the realm of possibility.
Whither Starliner
As yet NASA hasn’t decided whether they will switch their Starliner crew to Dragon, although going by reports they are certainly leaning that way. All being well, we should hopefully receive their decision in the next few weeks. Frankly, there’s too much politics inside NASA, Boeing and the US administration to call it. However, Starliner’s story is far from over, even if it departs sans crew. In that case it would probably be loaded with cargo bags full of ISS garbage, to simulate the mass of two astronauts. A successful landing, after an automated undocking and descent, should ensure NASA are happy to continue their journey with Starliner, although Boeing’s opinion might differ considering they lost $1.6bn so far on their fixed price contract. All being well, we could realistically see Starliner enter service in Spring 2026, assuming Boeing iron-out all the issues and see the dev-contract through to completion.
In conclusion
It seems increasingly likely NASA will derisk this Crew Flight Test by returning their astronauts on Crew Dragon. The stakes are too high should a tragedy occur, to NASA, the US Administration and particularly the crew.
Overall space will benefit if SpaceX successfully retrieve two stranded astronauts from the ISS because it demonstrates future rescue missions are more than possible. Just as civilian air traffic opened up the skies we will likely see a similar expansion into space with a variety of vehicles from different nations. Developing a rescue service now might seem premature, but SpaceX are all about iteration, and lessons learned from Dragon could be applied to Starship, which will range much farther.
Words cannot express how embarrassing this is for Boeing. As if two crashed 737s, an unbolted door, and every single project, including the SLS costing 5 times more than promised…you have this.
The company with 60 years of space experience, given twice the funding, was beaten by a newcomer by over 4 years…and that newcomer is going to have to rescue Boeing’s crew.
Boeing needs to completely reinvent itself, ten years ago.
Thanks for a well written explanation of the situation that a layman can understand. You’re a good teacher.