SpaceX Magic

Starship Flight 5 was a window on the future

On Sunday 7:25 am CDT, SpaceX waved their magic wand, viz a 121m tall Starship weighing 5,000 tons, and weaved some epic magic. Following a flawless launch and stage separation, amazingly they managed to catch the returning booster with an enormous pair of mechanical chopsticks, normally used to stack the vehicle on the launch mount. While this might seem an elaborate way to land, it means the booster can dispense with heavy landing legs, which saves enough propellant to return it to the launch site, ready for immediate reuse. In addition, the Starship upper stage performed a perfect suborbital arc to descend precisely in the Indian Ocean, suggesting it too could soon be caught by chopsticks, making the whole vehicle reusable

"Ship just gave us one heck of a show, making it through a controlled reentry this time, flaps intact, made it down to the water. Starships are meant to fly. It sure as hell flew today. So let’s get ready for the next one.” Dan Huot, SpaceX communications manager

Way forward

Fortunately SpaceX had more flight hardware ready should Flight 5 fail, so technically they could launch again in weeks, assuming they use a similar profile. A few small issues were observed on Flight 5 i.e: some of the boosters outer engine bells were warped by the heat of reentry, one of the stubby wings (called chines) lost an aerodynamic cover, some thermal protection tiles cracked on the ship and the forward flap suffered a little burnthrough near the root. Hence SpaceX will likely perform Flight 6 in November, with slight tweaks to mitigate these minor issues and ensure the booster catch wasn’t a fluke. Alternately, they could use this flight to land the ship in Australia, likely somewhere out of the way, or on a barge at sea. This should demonstrate reentry is safe over populated areas, similar to how the Space Shuttle flew cross-country before landing at the Cape.

For Flight 7, SpaceX plan to use Starship 2, an even more powerful version of the original. The vehicle has been stretched to increase its propellant load and can carry over 100 metric tons to orbit. In addition, the forward flaps have been moved leeward, to shield the root during reentry, hopefully eliminating any burnthrough. Interestingly, the first version 2 ship features a payload door, hence Flight 7 will likely be used to deploy Gen 2 Starlink satellites – designed specifically for Starship.

“The next generation Starlink satellites, which are so big that only Starship can launch them, will allow for a 10X increase in bandwidth and, with the reduced altitude, faster latency.” ~ Elon Musk

Next trick

“Hopefully early next year, we will catch the ship too.” ~ Elon Musk

Once SpaceX show their booster catch technique is reliable, they will attempt to land the ship as soon as possible. Either Flight 7 or Flight 8 (another Starlink mission) could be the first attempt, assuming they gain FAA approval. Returning a stage from orbit is far more challenging than booster landings, due to the ship’s high reentry speed (mach 25), but SpaceX eat challenge for breakfast! Proving ship recovery is paramount to SpaceX’s mission, because it allows the whole vehicle to be reused within days if not hours, making rides to space routine, comparable to a commute.

Sunlit uplands

With Starship booster and ship reuse in the bag, SpaceX should enter sunlit uplands, both lit. and fig. Their previous battles with the FAA should recede as Starlink launches become routine and they commence a series of NASA missions for the Artemis moon program. Fortunately NASA authorize their own missions, making the permitting process easer for SpaceX, because it avoids the long delays caused by the FAA.

“Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware.” ~ SpaceX

In 2025 SpaceX plan to launch 2 Starships at once, using both launch towers in parallel at their Texas launch facility. Ideally these twin ships will rendezvous in orbit then transfer propellant from one to the other, a key milestone in their development program. If successful, it will allow SpaceX to deploy a propellant storage depot to refuel Starships in orbit, enabling them to journey much farther, such as the moon and Mars. No doubt SpaceX will use Starship 3 for propellant depots, fueling tankers and deep space missions, due to its increased payload capacity. Starship 3 employs Raptor 3 engines, which are in relatively short supply at the moment, hence we probably won’t see this ultimate version of Starship fly until late 2025 or early 2026. That remains on schedule for NASA, who want to use Starship as a Human Landing System in 2026, to explore the lunar South Pole.

Stretch goal

“Starship is designed to achieve a >1000X [cost] improvement over existing systems and, especially after yesterday’s booster catch and precise ocean landing of the ship, I am now convinced that it [making life multiplanetary] can work.” ~ Elon Musk

Given Starship’s substantial payload capacity and cost discipline, it should be the ideal vehicle for building a Mars settlement, something that now appears within SpaceX’s reach.

“SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years. If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years… We want to enable anyone who wants to be a space traveler to go to Mars!” ~ Elon Musk

Essentially Starship is so cheap it will allow the moon and Mars to be pursued in parallel, by NASA and SpaceX respectively. This is the space future we have been waiting for, with rapid advances across multiple worlds all at once!

In conclusion

SpaceX performance so far is fantastic, far beyond the realms of the legacy space industry or even NASA. We are entering new territory, where space companies exceed and aerospace companies recede...

SpaceX is poised for the next big leap to Mars, with all the finance in hand, plus additional contributions from NASA for transport services to the ISS and lunar surface. Brave new worlds lie ahead, heralding a bright future for humanity, in all its diversity.

Chris Prophet