SpaceX Evolution (Chapter 8)

A serialized version of this book for SubStack

CHAPTER 8: SAFE HARBOR

SpaceX have achieved much, due to their carefully designed corporate architecture and strategic placement, in arguably the most entrepreneurial country and state in the world. However, to take it to the next level they need to set their own rules, free from national regulation. SpaceX have long butted heads with regulators and struggled with bureaucracy,¹ so making a fresh start somewhere on their own terms is the logical solution.

A lot of the time the best thing that government can do is just get out of the way and so I’d say that’s the default, probably the best thing to do.² ~ Elon Musk/Wall Street Journal

Hence they intend to open a whole new world, one where they alone have access – the planet Mars. Coincidentally this new world has rich surface deposits of iron for shipbuilding, plus carbon dioxide and water for propellant production – even low atmospheric pressure and gravity, making it an ideal place to launch spacecraft. Earth is relatively resource rich but its gravity is too high to effectively launch spacecraft, which usually require large and inefficient boosters to reach orbit. However, on Mars the same spacecraft can launch direct to orbit sans booster, with sufficient propellant left over to perform deep space operations, without need for further refueling. So SpaceX want Mars for operational reasons, to forge their own future, free from national control and stultifying bureaucracy.

Many might believe any settlement of Mars would be a colony, supported by a national space agency, or group of agencies, who manage the overall mission. The word colony implies it would be owned by a nation or nations, hence obliged to operate under their rule of law and permission. Likely too national flags would feature prominently on uniforms, spacecraft and equipment, with more placed on the surface to imply sovereignty.

Granted from a legal perspective the Outer Space Treaty asserts: “States shall be responsible for national space activities whether carried out by governmental or non-governmental entities.” In essence this means each state must authorize space activities carried out under their jurisdiction and are responsible for their actions in space. However, OST also states: “outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.” Hence any Mars territories cannot be claimed by the United States, which suggests any settlement established there would be self-governing by default, according to the existing framework of laws.³

Ultimately this is going to be a huge public-private partnership. That's how the United States was established, and many other countries around the world. I think that's how it will happen. Right now we're trying to make as much progress as we can with the resources that we have available and just sort of keep moving both [commercial operations and Mars colonization] forward and hopefully I think as we show that this is possible, that this dream is real, not just a dream but that it is something that is being made real, I think the support will snowball over time.⁴ ~ Elon Musk/IAC 2016

While it’s tempting to believe any Mars landings would be a rerun of the Apollo moon landings from the 1960s, that analogy is likely unsound. The future has a funny way of surprising us, by consistently turning out not as we expected. No doubt SpaceX will keep developing Starship until they have a working Mars transport, because it is the company’s sole purpose for existence, their raison d’etre. So far this effort has been largely self-funded, through commercial activities like their launch business, Starlink, Starshield and private investment.

We’re really building it {Starship] from internal funds. NASA is providing some support because they intend to use Starship for transporting astronauts to the surface of the moon but this has really been an internally funded effort. Probably at least 90% internally funded thus far.⁵ ~ Elon Musk/Tesmanian

It’s possible NASA might contribute some additional funding, because they dearly want to send their own people to Mars for scientific research and prestige purposes. Unfortunately their astronauts might have difficulty making the cut to become first landers, for a variety of reasons: -

Risk – Landing personnel on the surface of a new planet for the first time, using a clean sheet approach like Starship…is the very definition of high risk.

Honestly a bunch of people probably will die in the beginning. It’s tough sledding over there [on Mars]… Yeh, we aren’t making anyone go, it’s volunteers only.⁶ ~ Elon Musk

Even if the first teams arrive safely, they would have no guarantee of safe return to Earth. SpaceX intend to create the propellant required for return after they land on the surface of Mars, a risky proposition never attempted before in an alien environment. In addition, they intend to send the first Starship back to Earth after 26 months, when the next return window opens. Likely this first launch from Mars would be a test, hence unmanned to prove safe return is possible; which implies first landers would need to survive on Mars for an additional 26 months, or 52 months in total. This also implies any Starship used for return will have remained on the surface for at least 2 years, hence might suffer technical issues due to unknown effects of long-term exposure to harsh surface conditions on this brave new world. Space agencies like NASA are politically and socially accountable hence unlikely to accept such a high-risk proposition for their valuable astronauts, at least until vehicle fitness is proven.

Expertise – SpaceX intend to use Starship as the first habitat on Mars – and need to produce their own propellant to ensure it meets their exact specification for Starship’s advanced Raptor engines. This implies they would have to send their own technical personnel to maximize the chance of success, because they have the greatest expertise with this equipment. Starship was designed, built and tested exclusively by their personnel, so they are the logical choice to maintain it both in transit and on the surface of Mars. Similarly the air separator plant they designed and built at Boca Chica could be seen as a prototype for the ISRU (In Situ Resource Utilization) equipment needed to produce methalox propellant on Mars, hence their engineers have enormous hands-on experience.

SpaceX is starting a program to take CO2 out of atmosphere & turn it into rocket fuel. Please join if interested… Will also be important for Mars.⁷ ~ Elon Musk

Any NASA personnel sent would lack the deep understanding required to operate and maintain this vital equipment over a long duration mission far from Earth, where communication is chronically slow and potentially unreliable. Even SpaceX’s Medical Engineer⁸ would have unparalleled experience on Starship, gained on the many proving and commercial flights, such as the #Dearmoon mission,⁹ which they intend to complete before Mars.

Cost – NASA currently pay SpaceX ~$0.5bn to send four astronauts to the International Space Station for six months, including all necessary supplies and equipment. This suggests a four-year mission to Mars could cost NASA in excess of $4bn. However, SpaceX would need to send many of their own personnel to manage Starship and propellant production on Mars, plus maintain a large mission control staff to manage the expedition. Hence a more reasonable figure to send a team of four NASA astronauts might be $8bn, which is probably too much for congress to swallow in one lump. However, if these same astronauts were sent during the following Earth-Mars launch window, they would only have to wait two years for return, which implies costs could drop to a more manageable $4bn, an entirely more palatable number.

Settlement – SpaceX intend to create a self-sustaining settlement on Mars, which can grow into a city of millions. That implies the majority of people they send would want to stay and help establish this settlement, even raise families. By contrast NASA would likely want to perform science and exploration, then have their people return to their families here on Earth. Unfortunately any first landers would need to dedicate all their time to founding the settlement during this crucial startup period. They will have to stay on surface for a minimum of 4 years...so are effectively settlers hence committed to making settlement a success.

Succinctly: tourism can wait, settlement comes first in order to survive.

Schedule – The Starship system is being developed by SpaceX on their own dime, which suggests they won’t wait for NASA to proceed. Space colonization far exceeds NASA’s current ambitions and technical capabilities, only a group of well-funded companies, who specialize in development, could hope to succeed in such a bold endeavor, at least during Musk’s lifetime.

So it seems for many good and valid reasons the first landers on Mars are likely to be SpaceX personnel, effectively giving them free rein on the planet. As previously noted, SpaceX want Mars to be self-governing but they also intend to establish the colony’s underlying constitution. In other words SpaceX will have inordinate influence over this new world through setting its constitution, and control over the only commercial means of access.

Musk suggests SpaceX is comprised of many small teams, each possessing a great deal of autonomy, because that’s the most efficient way to handle production and development. So applying this model to Mars, the initial personnel sent would effectively add another small team to the SpaceX organization. Then as the colony steadily grows, settlers would speciate into a number of more specialized teams and be regarded more like a corporate division. Likely their loyalty and trust would still lie with SpaceX, assuming the company continues to respect their autonomy and remains supportive of their pressing needs.

Elon has long suggested he will move to Mars, although more recently he confirmed this could happen as soon as 2031, much to the surprise of his girlfriend, the singer/songwriter Grimes...

The idea for the song came to her [Grimes] during a conversation with friends two years ago while she was three or four months pregnant with X, when Musk casually mentioned that he planned to depart for Mars in 10 years. She froze. “I was like, ‘Uhhh….’ ” She remembers laughing nervously. “I said, ‘Could we make it 20?’”¹⁰ ~ Grimes interview/Vanity Fair

Generally Elon likes to be at the center of things, and assisting Mars to become a self-sustaining colony could certainly be regarded as his greatest challenge yet. Of course this move would also serve a strategic goal, Mars promises to become the perfect place for SpaceX to set-up their headquarters and flourish; free from national tithes, ties and regulations (see Appendix C: Why SpaceX Not NASA). This move seems almost inevitable given the number of secondary benefits it would also provide: -

1. Demonstrates the company’s commitment to the red planet and its people

2. Secures long-term employment for settlers and stabilizes the local economy

3. Encourages SpaceX employees to move to Mars and help settlement grow

4. Establishes a safe harbor for the burgeoning space economy

Succinctly: it’s not a case of whether SpaceX relocates to Mars – but how soon.

As a side note, Elon Musk said: “I'm planning to retire to Mars,”¹¹ which seems a good way to soften the blow of losing what is arguably the foremost engineer in the world. However, he also declared: “For my part, I will never give up and I mean never,”¹² which suggests he might play some active role still on Mars, even in ‘retirement.’ In addition he has long stated: “I would like to die on Mars, just not on impact,”¹³ which overall suggests he intends this trip to be one way and Mars is his future.

I’m mostly concerned with developing the technology that can enable a lot of people to go to Mars and make life multiplanetary, have a base on the moon, a city on Mars – and I think it’s important that we strive to have a self-sustaining city on Mars as soon as possible.¹⁴ ~ Elon Musk

1 https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/15/22352366/elon-musk-spacex-faa-warnings-starship-sn8-launch-violation-texas

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3 https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html

4 http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/spacex/elon-musk-making-humans-a-multiplanetary-species/

5 https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/solar-system

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7

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1470519292651352070

8

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1400934910743879680

9

https://dearmoon.earth/

10 https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2022/03/grimes-cover-story-on-music-and-mars

11 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2010/aug/01/elon-musk-spacex-rocket-mars

12 https://www.elonx.net/spacex-stories-how-elon-musk-inspired-employees-following-a-third-falcon-1-failure/

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