SpaceX Accelerator
SPCX should rapidly increase after IPO
On June 11-12 SpaceX (SPCX) will start selling its shares to the public, in the biggest Initial Public Offering (IPO) in history. The company’s initial value is $1.75tn, although this should rise rapidly after IPO, due to internal and external factors. Literally SpaceX destiny is out of this world.
IPO Timing
SpaceX has stolen a march on major rivals, like Anthropic and OpenAI, who will IPO later this year. This should ensure SPCX receives the lion’s share of institutional and retail investment, as first to market.
Recently SpaceX completed Flight 12 of Starship, the world’s most powerful launch vehicle. This proved the viability of their Starship V3 design, demonstrating they are 10+ years ahead of any competitor.
June 28 is Elon Musk’s 55th birthday, and it would make a great birthday present if he becomes the world’s first trillionaire.
“Elon Musk: current net worth $839.2 bn” ~ Forbes
IPO Launch
“This is one of those lifetime moments in which people may say they just have to get in.” ~ Rowan Taylor, Liberty Hall Capital
Retail investors are chomping at the bit for SpaceX stock, following the 30,000% ascent of Tesla (TSLA) post IPO. Reportedly 30% of the SpaceX stock is allocated to retail investors, because they are more likely to hold over the longterm. However, no amount will be enough to satisfy initial demand, suggesting SPCX will substantially increase when its listed, how much depends on macro conditions.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively reopening, which lowers energy cost, giving a boost to the world economy. Large institutions who hedged against a recession should return to the market, just as SPCX stock becomes available.
Kevin Warsh will chair his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16-17, then speak to reassure the markets, who abhor any kind of uncertainty. Warsh believes one off events like tariff increases or short term wars have negligible affect on longterm inflation, hence he’s more open to interest rate cuts. Changing the narrative from rate increases to rate cuts will certainly improve market outlook, particularly stocks.
Post IPO
Around 5 days after SpaceX IPO they should be listed on the Russell 500, 10 days later on the NASDAQ 100, then the S&P 500 will likely follow suit to remain competitive. Every ETF, 401K etc that tracks these indices will have to buy substantial quantities of SPCX to re-balance their fund.
In late July/early August, SpaceX will perform Starship Flight 13. This should be the final proving flight for Starship before it carries commercial payload, i.e. Starlink Version 3 satellites. These will have more than 10X the downlink and 24X the uplink capacity of Version 2 satellites, allowing Starlink to cover densely populated areas and access a far greater market.
“By clearly demonstrating Starlink’s superior speed, low-latency, affordability, and ease of installation—not only in rural, remote, and infrastructure limited areas, but also in suburban and urban areas with wireline broadband options—we expect to drive meaningful subscriber and revenue growth.” ~ SpaceX/Form S-1
Starlink is already a massive cash cow for SpaceX, generating $11.5bn revenue in 2025 at software margins, with the number of subscribers roughly doubling each year.
Starship should become fully reusable by the end of 2026, which is a game-changer. Previously SpaceX launched 10,000 Starlink satellites on their partially reusable Falcon 9, which takes 30 days to refurbish. Starship can launch 4X the payload and designed to be fully and rapidly reusable, possibly in hours.
“There will ultimately be >100k V3/V4/V5 satellites for Starlink broadband and direct to cellphone connectivity. If growth continues, Starlink will one day carry the majority of Internet traffic. At that point, it is the Internet and everything else just connects to Starlink.” ~ Elon Musk/X
As Elon suggests, Starlink satellites will allow cellphones to connect anywhere, which should generate comparable revenue to Starlink internet in the medium to longterm.
In late 2027 SpaceX will land a Starship Human Landing System (HLS) on the Moon, to prove its safe for NASA astronauts. Then in 2028 SpaceX will start to launch AI satellites to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), aiming to deploy a million satellites in total.
AI Service
SpaceX has merged with xAI, who are the fastest data center builder on Earth, judging by their Colossus 1 and 2 facilities. Currently Anthropic pays $1.25bn a month to use Colossus 1, and other deals will likely follow, given the limited supply of compute and massive demand from AI companies. No doubt Anthropic view this as good future investment, considering it puts them first in line for SpaceX’s AI satellites, when they become available.
“As part of this agreement, we have also expressed interest in partnering with SpaceX to develop multiple gigawatts of orbital AI compute capacity,” Dario Amodei, Anthropic CEO/SpaceNews.com
Future Acquisitions
Before the end of 2026, SpaceX should buy Cursor, a leading AI coding company. This would put Grok on par with any automated coding system and accelerate other ambitious projects, like Starship, satellite AI and space settlement. Consequently SpaceX market value should increase by at least $60bn.
In 2027 SpaceX will probably buy Tesla. Elon Musk has an 85% controlling stake in SpaceX, so purchasing Tesla will secure his control of the company. Likely this will add ~$2tn to SpaceX market value.
Given this move to agglomeration, no doubt The Boring Company and Neuralink will also be absorbed, to minimize the management burden on Musk. Overall these purchases will put a $7.5tn market value within reach for SpaceX, something Musk needs to achieve to receive 260 million in vested shares.
Defense Work
The US military is racing to catch up with technological advances from the Russo-Ukrainian war, which utilize high bandwidth communications. For example: Starlink allowed Ukraine to effectively clear the Russian Navy from the Black Sea, using only low cost naval drones. Recently Space Force announced SpaceX will develop the Space Data Network (SDN), a military version of Starlink for all services. No doubt this will add billions to SpaceX’s bottom line, when it becomes widely adopted.
SDN will also be used to operate Golden Dome, so SpaceX play a central role in its development. In addition, Golden Dome satellites need to incorporate AI to reduce reaction time, putting SpaceX in pole position to receive this work. They are currently developing their own AI satellite constellation, using custom built microchips, which aims to deploy around the same time as Golden Dome in 2028… Realistically Golden Dome could cost $trillions to build and maintain, which would certainly help SpaceX financials.
Looking further out, Space Force want to protect NASA’s moonbase at the lunar south pole. Each Starship can carry more than 200 tons of cargo, making it an ideal cislunar patrol vehicle. Currently SpaceX are constructing 2 Starship launch mounts at SLC-37 for Space Force, which would allow them to launch 2 patrol vehicles in parallel. NASA pays $1.15bn for a Starship HLS mission, including orbital refueling, which seems a reasonable price SpaceX could charge for each cislunar patrol mission.
In Conclusion
“We estimate that our quantifiable TAM [Total Addressable Market] is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.” ~ SpaceX/Form S-1
SpaceX should acquire the majority of this TAM, due to their ability to develop and launch technology faster than the competition. Normally a tech company’s market value is 10X their revenue, which suggests SpaceX should be worth $200tn in a few decades. And that’s before they get serious and settle other moons, asteroids and planets. Then the only thing to exceed their ambition will be their market value.