NASA is under pressure due to delays in their Artemis moon program. Consequently NASA’s acting administrator has decided to develop a new Human Landing System (HLS) to compete with Starship HLS, built by SpaceX.
“They’re behind schedule, and so the President wants to make sure we beat the Chinese, He wants to get there in his term. So I’m in the process of opening that [HLS] contract up. I think we’ll see companies like Blue [Origin] get involved, and maybe others. We’re going to have a space race in regard to American companies competing to see who can actually lead us back to the Moon first.” ~ Sean Duffy, NASA Acting Administrator/Ars Technica
Significantly the Chinese intend to land on the moon by 2029, which means NASA must perform a moon landing in 2028 to be safe. Allowing three years to develop a new moon lander seems an impossible task, considering the Lunar Module used by Apollo took 6 years under ideal conditions. However, crash development could be possible if they take the Kerbal approach and adapt existing hardware systems.
HLS Contract Contenders
Speed is of the essence, which unfortunately rules out the legacy aerospace companies who work for cost plus profit contracts, which incentivize slow delivery. That leaves 3 commercial space companies with suitable systems available i.e. SpaceX, Blue Origin and Sierra Space.
SpaceX Bid
Strange as it may seem, SpaceX could bid for a second HLS contract using existing hardware systems.
Lunar Lander – the Crew Dragon spacecraft could be adapted into a lunar lander if equipped with additional propellant. Fortunately SpaceX is already building a vehicle to deorbit the International Space Station (ISS) based on their Dragon spacecraft: -
“The deorbit vehicle will need six times the usable propellant and three to four times the power generation and storage of today’s Dragon spacecraft.” ~ Sarah Walker, SpaceX director of Dragon mission management/SpaceFlight Now
In addition, Dragon flew to the edge of the Van Allen belt on the Polaris Dawn mission, to test its radiation resistance in deep space. If necessary more shielding could be added, considering the crew size would reduce from 4 to 2 for lunar landings. Any mass increase would be offset by deleting the heat shield, parachutes and inflatable raft, which aren’t needed for lunar landings.
Launch Vehicle – Falcon Heavy can only send 17 tons to Trans Lunar Orbit (TLI), which rules it out considering the Dragon lander would weigh over 20 tons, with additional stores of propellant. Starship Version 3 could launch the Dragon Lander and a stretched version of the Falcon Second Stage to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The Falcon stage should supply sufficient delta-v for TLI and to decelerate into a Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) around the moon, ready to rendezvous with the Orion crew vehicle.
Time to Complete – the SpaceX deorbit vehicle should be ready to launch in 2028, which suggests they could build a crew lander in a similar timeframe. Caveat: NASA’s test and certification process for crew vehicles would have to be streamlined or outsourced to SpaceX.
Blue Origin Bid
Blue Origin was specifically mentioned by Duffy, so likely a leading contender: -
Lunar Lander – the New Shepherd Capsule is designed to carry crew, although it would require significant modification to operate in deep space. It could be coupled with the Blur Moon Mk 1 cargo lander currently under development, assuming the crew capsule is kept below 3 tons.
Launch Vehicle – New Glenn will launch Blue Moon Mk 1 to LEO then the lunar lander must use its own propellant for TLI. This suggests Blue Moon would reach Low Lunar Orbit (LLO) with barely enough propellant to land, assuming a minimal instrument payload. Starship could launch Blue Moon plus a New Shepherd Booster to LEO but whether Jeff Bezos would agree to such an arrangement seems doubtful. No doubt he would prefer to refuel the Blue Moon lander in NRHO using a second Blue Moon launched by New Glenn. Ideally this should provide sufficient propellant for the crewed Blue Moon to land and take off from the lunar surface.
Time to Complete
Blue Origin underperform for a space company, and cislunar refueling is a serious challenge...realistically they might complete sometime in the 2030s.
“Blue Origin has never delivered a [useful] payload to orbit, let alone the moon.” ~ Elon Musk/X
Sierra Space Bid
Sierra Space is an outlier, with some compatible capabilities in late stage of development: -
Lunar Lander – Dream Chaser was originally designed to carry crew hence the existing Tenacity spacecraft could be modified into a crew lander. The folding wings and heatshield could be replaced by landing legs, external propellant tanks and thrusters, allowing it to settle horizontally onto the lunar surface. The crew version of Dream Chaser comes with an airlock, which would be an advantage. Only a single spacesuit could be carried due to Dream Chaser’s limited internal volume hence the airlock would protect one astronaut while the second disembarks.
Launch Vehicle – all Space Launch System (SLS) vehicles currently under construction are allocated to Orion launches, but a new Starship can be built in a couple of months making it readily available. One could launch Dream Chaser plus a Vulcan Centaur second stage to high elliptical orbit, allowing the Vulcan stage to complete the journey to NRHO.
Time to Complete
Dream Chaser requires significant modification, particularly the addition of external propulsion systems. Given abundant resources, conversion work could be completed before the 2028 deadline – assuming no unforeseen issues…
In Conclusion
Elon Musk suggests the most ironic outcome is most likely, which certainly appears the case with a new HLS contract. Instead of replacing Starship HLS, it would likely increase SpaceX involvement in the Artemis Program.
The least expensive option is to convert Crew Dragon into a lunar lander, which overall has the best chance of meeting the 2028 deadline. However, Musk believes Starship HLS will be ready before any competitors, and goes one further, suggesting Starship will be used to launch astronauts from Earth and land them on the moon.
“[It seems silly to imagine someone getting us there faster than SpaceX.] They won’t. SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words.” ~ Elon Musk/X
As they say: “If you want a job done find a busy man,” and no-one’s busier than Elon Musk.