IFT-2 there’s no if
If you build a bridge you house a troll
SpaceX’s first launch of Starship, called the Integrated Flight Test (IFT), went off with great fanfare, and a reasonable amount of repairable damage to the launch site. Unfortunately it didn’t reach orbit but just clearing the pad was a triumph considering nothing of this scale has ever been attempted. Rather predictably, some commentators in the twittersphere now believe this will be Starship’s swan song, due to ongoing delays and objections to the next test flight (loosely termed IFT-2). In reality, nothing could be further from the truth, wishful thinking at best by these counter-commentators, who clearly lack the necessary insight into the larger situation.
Indispensable Starship
SpaceX were founded to reduce the cost of space access, and make it feasible to settle new worlds. Starship is the next step along the path that began with their first rocket Falcon 1, although it is unlikely to be their last. This revolutionary vehicle can carry more payload than a Saturn V and designed to be fully reusable like an aircraft. Starship promises to reduce the cost of space access by 2 or 3 magnitudes but could take up to $10bn to develop into an operational vehicle. Initially SpaceX were unable to secure federal support, so they decided to fund development themself, that’s how much Starship means to the company. Understandable considering what it represents for humanity: Starship is a bridge to new worlds, that puts us on the high road to spread among the stars. Without it we’re doomed to die on this rock, either by our own hand or some cosmic cataclysm e.g: asteroid impact, super nova, rogue black hole etc.
Succinctly: Starship is on the critical path for humanity.
Federal Endorsement
Following a demonstration flight of Starhopper, an early Starship prototype, government has warmed to the possibilities presented by this unique vehicle. NASA now rely on Starship to land astronauts on the moon for the Artemis program, AFRL will use it to demonstrate rocket cargo transport, and no doubt used to deploy the ultra-secure Starshield constellation for the defense department. Given the above, it seems naive to think that government support for Starship would waiver due to a few technical hiccups, which are only to be expected for such a ground breaking project.
Some local conservation groups have objected to further Starship launches from Boca Chica but so far failed secure a court injunction. SpaceX directly employ thousands in the South Texas area, with many more dependent on them indirectly, hence any prospect for an injunction seems remote, to say the least. Overall it’s quite possible OFT-2 will occur before this legal action resolves, likely strengthening the case that Starship is safe to operate from Boca Chica.
Delays strengthen Starship
In June 2015 SpaceX suffered a rare failure of their Falcon 9 launch vehicle during the CRS-7 mission, a cargo flight to the ISS on behalf of NASA. The day after this inflight failure, NASA officials phoned SpaceX to inquire if they needed any help with the mishap investigation. SpaceX said they’d already spent 2,000 man-hours investigating the cause of this mishap and would let them know how they got on… Six months later SpaceX had fully resolved the issue and so improved the overall performance and reliability of the vehicle it required a new name: the Falcon 9 Full Thrust. As a tour-de-force SpaceX managed to land the Full Thrust booster on its very first flight, something never achieved before with an orbital launch vehicle.
Similarly, Starship will return like a lion after its brief hiatus, given the treasure trove of information gained from its maiden launch. Essentially the longer any delay, the more opportunity SpaceX have to make the necessary improvements to ensure a successful launch. They use the evolutionary prototyping method, so realistically we’re unlikely to see either stage recovered after IFT-2 but it should take us several steps closer.
In conclusion
What outsiders say to support their own position has little bearing on what’s really happening at Boca Chica. These types of protests might have resonated more before the FAA approved its use as a spaceport in 2014. Since then SpaceX have come too far too fast to be stopped by a misbegotten alliance of nimbys and trolls, frankly that time has passed. In the final analysis, it seems humanity will advance despite itself, thanks to the dedication and foresight of SpaceX.