Falcon Heavy Artemis
A commercial Moon program restores schedule and reduces cost
Reportedly Boeing’s Space Launch System (SLS), the crew launch vehicle for the Artemis moon program, is nearing the end of the road. SLS, and its crew capsule Orion, have accrued so many delays they now appear anachronistic compared to more modern commercial vehicles. To illustrate: SLS costs $4.1bn to launch every 2 years, compared to $150m for SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, which can launch every month if necessary. Hence harnessing commercial capabilities would allow NASA to do far more for less, and stay on track for moon landings later this decade.
Falcon Heavy Suitability
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy has a long flight history and uses the same boosters and upper stage as Falcon 9, so could easily be adapted to carry the Crew Dragon spacecraft. Falcon Heavy is the big brother of Falcon 9, so powerful enough to launch Crew Dragon to lunar orbit, in place of SLS/Orion. Once there Crew Dragon could transfer astronauts to a waiting Human Landing System (HLS), then ensure their safe return to Earth to complete the mission. Some additional thrust is needed to leave lunar orbit, fortunately SpaceX is developing the Dragon XL cargo spacecraft, which carries large reserves of bi-propellant. Hence a cut-down version of Dragon XL could be used in place of the cargo trunk to provide additional thrust, essentially making it a service module.
Currently NASA plans to use Falcon Heavy to launch a pair of Gateway modules to lunar orbit, with a total mass of 17.5 tons, while a fully loaded Crew Dragon weighs ~10.5 tons sans cargo trunk. This suggests the XL service module could weigh up to 7 tons and carry ~4 tons of propellant, more than enough to leave lunar orbit. Note: Crew Dragon has an additional 1.4 tons of bi-propellant to power its Draco and Super Draco thrusters, which could be tapped as a contingency.
Deep Space Dragon
Crew Dragon will require some modification before it can be used in deep space. Fortunately it has already flown to the Van Allen belt, during the Polaris Dawn mission, giving SpaceX plenty of data on how it performs in deep space conditions. No doubt Dragon will require some significant upgrades as follows: -
Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) – Artemis lunar missions will last a month so an extended duration ECLSS system needs to be fitted to Dragon. SpaceX has developed such a system for their Human Landing System (HLS), which could be adapted for Dragon, allowing the two systems to be compatible (e.g. use common spares, fittings and materials).
Radiation Protection – Radiation is more prevalent in deep space, particularly in the Van Allen belt, hence Dragon will require additional radiation shielding. Rather counter-intuitively, polymers are particularly effective against radiation due to their high hydrogen content. Hence a layer of lightweight polymer foam could be added to the interior walls of Dragon to improve its radiation resistance.
Radio Transceiver – it’s roughly a quarter of a million miles to the moon, so Dragon would need to upgrade its radio communication equipment. Hopefully the HLS radio system could be used to save time and further improve compatibility.
Heatshield – Dragon normally reenters at 7.8km/s from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) but will reach 11.1km/s when it returns from the moon, hence generate far greater heat. However, Dragon’s heatshield is overengineered by design, suggesting only a lunar test flight is required to prove its durability
“The [Dragon] heat shield is quite massively over designed. It’s actually designed for multiple Earth orbit reentry missions – so that we can actually do up to 10 reentry missions with the same heat shield. That means it can actually do at least 1 lunar orbit reentry velocity missions, and conceivably maybe 2.” ~ Elon Musk/Universe Today
Artemis Schedule
As it stands, the Artemis Program schedule could slip for a variety of reasons: -
Orion heat shield – on the Artemis 1 mission, Orion’s heatshield suffered significantly damage during reentry, suggesting it should be redesigned before Artemis 2, i.e. the first crew flight of Orion.
“Counter-intuitively, the heat shield was not permeable enough during Artemis I. This led to gas buildup, higher pressures, and the cracking ultimately observed. The Independent Review Team was concerned because, as designed, the heat shield for Artemis II is actually more impermeable than the Artemis I vehicle.” ~ Ars Technica
Axiom Space Suits – Axiom is developing a new spacesuit for lunar exploration but encountered delays due to their lack of experience. Some progress was made after they partnered with Prada to produce a prototype suit, although the test and iteration process could take years to complete.
Human Landing System – SpaceX has to master on-orbit refueling before they can send HLS to the moon. Fortunately they managed to recover two Super Heavy boosters, and Starship should follow suit later this year. If they can reuse the entire launch vehicle, this should significantly accelerate the test and development process. That said, performing a crewed HLS mission by 2027 appears ambitious, even for a fast moving company like SpaceX.
Artemis Analysis
NASA has to land US astronauts on the moon before China send their own taikonauts in 2029. However, NASA is unlikely to meet this deadline if they redesign Orion’s heatshield and perform another circumlunar flight to certify its safety. If SLS is canceled NASA could take the opportunity to transition to Falcon Heavy+Dragon, which are both proven vehicles. SpaceX could retrofit Dragon with all suitable modifications and perform a circumlunar test flight before 2027, using their fleet of Crew Dragons and Falcon boosters. Then HLS should be ready by 2028, and if the Axiom suit is delayed, SpaceX has developed their own spacesuit which should be a suitable replacement.
In theory, SpaceX could use Starship to perform the entire Artemis mission i.e. launch a small team of astronauts to the moon, land them on the surface then return them safely to Earth. However this will likely require the new Starship design, i.e. Starship 3, fitted with Raptor 4 engines.
“When Raptor reaches 300 tons of thrust at liftoff, which Raptor 3.x can probably do (certainly Raptor 4 will), then it will have 10k metric tons of thrust at liftoff, which is 22.5M lb-F, almost exactly three times Saturn V.” ~ Elon Musk/X
Unfortunately Raptor 4 is unlikely to enter service before 2027, then SpaceX will need to perform numerous flight tests to prove Starship 3 is safe to carry crew. Realistically, this might leave insufficient time to develop a moon and back vehicle, at least before 2029...
In Conclusion
NASA has serious problems with the Orion spacecraft, which could result in further delays. When Jared Isaacman is confirmed as NASA administrator, he will likely review SLS and Orion performance and decide to chart a new course. Jared commanded the Polaris Dawn mission, so intimate with Crew Dragon capabilities and confident of SpaceX ability. Transitioning from SLS/Orion to Falcon Heavy/Dragon should put Artemis back on track and see moon landings before 2029. SpaceX solved NASA’s transport problem to the ISS, and stand ready to assist with Artemis – just waiting for permission to proceed.
Somehow I doubt that NASA would go this route. I do not believe Musk will want the impression that his political affiliation is benefitting him. My guess is, most likely, the Lunar Gateway will be killed as part of a cost-reduction effort. This would also kill Musk's Dragon XL.
Some of those funds would be diverted to LEO space stations, primarily benefitting Blue Origin and others, though SpaceX may indirectly benefit. The question is what will be done with SLS? At the minimum, I think EUS could be killed as well.
Both moves will free up billions of dollars for a mix of accelerating a return to the Moon and deficit reduction, without directly benefitting SpaceX in any way or creating the impression of favoritism. Of course, they also lay the groundwork for an eventual SLS cancellation that would come once Starship is operational.