NASA and SpaceX are both aiming for Mars, one can offer good financial and technical support, the other a launch vehicle made for Mars – sounds the perfect partnership. Currently they have separate plans to send human missions to the Red Planet, NASA with the Space Launch System (SLS) Block 2 and SpaceX on their Super Heavy Lift (SHL) Starship. However, it now seems almost inevitable they will join forces to overcome the challenge of Mars for a number of pressing reasons.
1. Mars Sample Return
NASA urgently want to retrieve samples of regolith from the Martian surface to perform detailed laboratory analysis before they commit to sending people. The Red Planet is a completely alien environment so it’s prudent to ensure there are no hidden surprises like pathogens for people to contend with, which might hazard the expedition. In a bid to cut costs and program schedule, NASA recently announced a Request For Information (RFI) to anyone interested in bidding on this Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, including proposals for a complete mission architecture.
“Starship has the potential to return serious tonnage from Mars within ~5 years,” ~ Elon Musk
Fortunately SpaceX can place 100 tons on Mars with a single Starship, which means they could include swarms of sample collection robots (a mix of rovers and flying drones) plus multiple sample return rockets as part of the payload, providing significant operational redundancy. Historically NASA has come to rely on SpaceX for commercial space services, most notably through providing cargo and passenger transport vehicles to the ISS under the Commercial Resupply Service (CRS) and Commercial Crew Program (CCP). Considering Starship is already flying it could offer a complete mission solution at a highly competitive price, which makes SpaceX a shoo-in to win an MSR contract. Then once Starship is used for MSR, it would likely become NASA’s first choice for a follow-up crew mission to reduce costs and assure crew safety.
2. Human Landing System
In April 2021 NASA awarded SpaceX a $2.89bn contract to convert Starship into a moon lander, called the Human Landing System (HLS), as part of their Artemis Program. Essentially SpaceX became the only practical choice because it was the only bid that NASA could fit in their constrained budget. Currently SpaceX are going flat out to develop HLS and aim to perform an autonomous landing on the moon in 2025, as a proving flight prior to the Artemis 3 crewed mission in 2026. However, once HLS Starship begins operation it will become the only crew lander certified by NASA, making Starship a necessity for Mars landings – at least in the short term. While Blue Origin are also developing their own Human Landing System for NASA, it won’t enter service until the next decade, at which point it might easily be overrun by events…
3. The Mission
“I think 5 years is possible and 10 years is highly likely [for human Mars landings] ~ Elon Musk
In 2021, after Elon Musk departed Paypal, he chose a new life mission: to make humanity a multiplanetary civilization. Everything he’s done since has furthered that goal, to a greater or lesser extent. In 2012 he offered to build a Mars capable vehicle for NASA, which was declined, because they had just begun to develop their own SHL vehicle, SLS Block 1. Undeterred, SpaceX went on to develop Starship on their own, and managed to perform the first flight tests of a prototype, called Starhopper, in mid 2019. Potentially this was a major embarrassment for NASA because it appeared a private company would possess a launch system far more advanced than SLS, capable of lifting 100 tons and fully reusable. After the HLS contract was awarded to SpaceX that brought Starship within the NASA fold, but transporting astronauts to the lunar surface doesn’t come close to fulfilling Elon’s life goal. Fortunately all the infrastructure built for HLS missions, e.g. launch facilities, orbital propellant depots and Tanker vehicles are dual utility, i.e. they can be used either to send HLS to the moon or Starships to Mars because the delta-v required is comparable. Given Elon’s driving ambition, it seems inevitable SpaceX will send an automated lander to Mars, preferably in late 2026, after completing their automated moon landing. Again this will likely drive NASA to engage with this Mars effort, because if they are not pushing the boundaries of space exploration it questions their validity as a space agency. Overall this is not a good time for such doubts to arise as the US Space Force looks to expand their responsibilities...
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